For a lot of people, for a lot of reasons, the greatest season is fall. It even gets a fancier name. Autumn. I’m in this camp. I like fall the most. It feels a bit like Superman being your favorite superhero; y’know how sometimes it can feel just a little dorky to really be super into the mainstream, made-to-be-likable stuff. There is a small caveat to my proclivity for all the fall: fall weather is not my favorite kind of weather. My favorite kind of weather is out-of-season weather; weather that feels the same as the stuff that was rockin’ 4-6 months before the current time. I once experienced an East Lansing January that felt like May. Insanely good day. I once was chilly in jeans and a heavy hoodie while poolside in June. These are the fun times, my friends. It’s like Mother Nature sometimes feels a bit blasé towards the whole schedule aspect of weather and just says to The Weather, “Do whatever you want.” For the record, there’s a capitalization distinction here. The Weather is different than weather. This has to do with how I believe Mother Nature controls The Weather. The Weather’s just, like, a dude who makes weather. Every now and then he has to check in with Mother Nature who explains what she wants him to do. Point is: the best weather is weather you don’t expect because the unexpected is fun!
If the unexpected is fun, this week’s contest should be feel quite fun indeed. Something fairly unexpected not so long ago was a Week 6 matchup between our beloved Lions and the Tampa Bay Bucs in which the teams’s combined record is 7-2.
(“Quick” digression: a few highfalutin sportswriter/talking head types fancy themselves clever when they say that Tampa Bay should be called Tampa because their city is called Tampa and a team can’t play for a body of water. Boo! Dumb. Embrace these fun idiosyncrasies. In fact, I’d expand the body-of-water-as-team-location-name roster if I could. I like the sound of The Bay Giants. I like Puget Sound Mariners, and I think it technically makes more sense. Even here at home, since much of our state’s hockey talent is west side and U.P., I would entertain the idea of the Great Lakes Red Wings. Claim a larger area, Red Wings! Go bigger than Michigan! If you nominally lay claim to all the Great Lakes you directly encroach on the land of two Orij Six foes, Chicago and Toronto. Taking our Red Wing name from Detroit to Great Lakes would be the name-changing equivalent of Alexander the Great. Think about it, Illitch. I’ll settle for 9% of the bump in royalties you get from new territory. <Paulie Walnuts voice> Oooh, gotta see my end. <end Paulie Walnuts voice> But back to football.)
LIONS V. BUCS — THESE CATS DON’T MIND THE WATER
Until further notice I’m gonna be giving games these taglines. All games should have Jim Nantz-level winking taglines. Anyway, the scenario entering this game is unexpected. A decent amount of people foresaw a good season for the Lions and a couple keen-eyed folks like your boy also liked the Bucs’s chances, but maybe not to this degree in the early ongoing. The superficially obvious reason for Tampa Bay’s success is Baker Mayfield, but their defense is nothing to sneeze at. Only Philly scored more than 17 on them, and that didn’t happen quickly. The Bucs will present a tough challenge for both our lines, and what’s obvious about the Lions so far is our results go as the lines go. One thing that bodes well for the Lions is, so far, Tampa Bay can’t run. If that trend prevails and we can consistently put them in 3rd-and-long scenarios, I really like our chances to win.
There are a few more concerns I have about Tampa Bay that make me think they can maybe win this game. Firstly, they’re coming off a bye, rested and relatively healthy. No small thing, and perhaps an even greater advantage when you consider the current banged-up state of the Lions. The list of who didn’t practice on Thursday is so staggering you just have to hope it’s all precautionary or rest-related. Secondly, more metaphysically, the Bucs appear to have a positivity around/in them similar to that which surrounds the Lions. They’re having fun and relishing the how tough they’ve had to be thus far. I certainly haven’t been overly impressed by Todd Bowles’s head coaching results over the years, but he appears to have connected with this group and helped uncover their moxie.
One thing I like about this game is that a lot of our stars are from or went to college in warm weather environments, and the forecast in Tampa is 75ºF and breezy. Our backs and receivers will be in good form, so if the lines continue their excellent play, we’ll win. The Bucs are solid, but my gut tells me that the Lions are solid-er. I think it’ll be a well-fought contest for about 50 minutes but the Lions will eventually pull away. And I think they’ll win by at least 4, so take the Lions minus the spread. Props to the Bucs for reviving those terrific creamsicle uniforms, but it won’t be enough.
WEEK SIX GAMES OF DISTINCTION
Ravens (-4) @ Titans but London — This pick is because of how the Ravens ended their game against the Steelers. I trust in Harbaugh’s ability to alchemize their disgust at their incredibly poor play last week into a productive anger. Same for Lamar Jackson. I also trust that they’re a sharp organization that’ll effectively handle the London-y differences in the week that come from the London trip. Let’s say the Ravens bounce back this week.
Niners (-9.5) @ Browns — Seems like a steep line, but I keep asking myself how often the Browns are going to be able to stop the Niners? And on the flip side of the coin, how many times will a Watson-less and Chubb-less Cleveland offense score against this monster defense? This feels like 35-17 or maybe 38-21. The Niners have replaced the Dolphins as my ride-or-die, they just look so freaking good! Take the Niners by at least 10.
Seahawks (+2.5) @ Bengals — Seattle has a really solid team. If they avoid dumb mistakes they’re really difficult to beat. But I think Cinci’s high output against Arizona was a cathartic thing for their confidence. I expect them to maintain their high level of play on offense, and once Seattle is behind they’ll have to rely a lot on Geno-no-no in obvious passing downs, and I think that recipe bodes poorly for them. The Bengals are gonna continue their roll back to the top of the division.
Eagles (-7) @ Jets — This has 85% to do with football, but all that stuff should be obvious. Until Coug-Huntin’ Zach grabs some bench, the Jets won’t be in the same league as the greats (figuratively, of course; they’re all in the same league — the NFL). 15% of this pick has to do with the last few weeks in sports and how everything’s turning up Philly. I think the Eagles will relish the chance to own a New York team three times in a season like they did last year. This year they won’t see the Giants in the playoffs, so this is how they gotta do it. Hurts and Brown continue their great stretch of play and the Eagles win by a sufficient amount.
Last week saw us go 4-2-0, bringing the season’s record to 18-6-0. Houston not covering by a half of a point was something you could strangely see coming with about a quarter left. It really sucked when it played out that way, and I could technically call that game a W and give myself a 5-1-0 because Houston got more points as the week proceeded and sharp money came down on the Atlanta side… but I’m gonna be honorable about it and take 4-2. Speaking of honorable, I’m contractually obligated to mention Disney+. I watched a YouTube recap of the first episode of the new season of “Loki”, and the show looks totally bananas. It looks like a good translation of a Loki comic, but I don’t know if that’s for everybody. A lot of people are saying the MCU has painted itself into a 4-dimensional corner, which is a neat thing to try and visualize but boy, these stories are getting kinda meh. This definitely isn’t the most ringing endorsement, but it’s about honesty. Disney+: There If You Want It. I hope you had a nice time reading these previews and picks! Thank you for reading. Catch ya late Sunday for the Running Diary of Lions v. Buccaneers! Auf Wiedersehen!
