Happy T-Bird! T-Bird is how a good friend of mine in college once referred to Thanksgiving. It was one of the best things I’ve ever heard and I’ve appropriated it for myself every year since. I don’t claim it, I give the friend full credit if anyone asks, I just don’t want to blow up his spot on the internet unnecessarily. I imagine once word gets out about who invented T-Bird he’d have to deal with a media frenzy and paparazzi and the whole shot. I don’t wanna do that to my buddy. Nor his family, for that matter. The progenitor of T-Bird for Thanksgiving lives his life out of the spotlight until he desires otherwise. End of story.
T-Bird is the zenith of the Detroit year. Not only do we have the traditional Lions game, not only do we have the country’s best parade and the Turkey Trot, not only does the T-Bird Eve bar scene make every old person feel almost young again and every young person feel deliriously immortal, but there’s also one of the more underrated single-iteration games in America: the Thanksgiving Eve Red Wing game. From Wednesday afternoon on, this extra-long long weekend sees Detroit become the paradise outsiders don’t believe is possible. Even the Black Friday shopping ridiculousness has waned in recent years. People still go nuts, but not quite as nuts, which is nice for the workers. Nobody should have to peep out of T-Bird dinner early to go punch in at Meijer. Yessir, Detroit feels like a dream on Thanksgiving weekend, and the non-dinner centerpiece is, of course, the game played by our beloved Lions.
Sometimes we play non-divisional opponents on T-Bird. Just last year we gave a still-thought-of-as-elite Bills team a real run for their money. We had that game won until we gave Josh Allen the few extra seconds he needed to score as the game ended. I remember one T-Bird game I attened with my dad wherein one John Joseph Ballgame Harrington exacted sweet vengeance on the Lions team that drafted him and clobbered us all afternoon wearing a Dolphins jersey. I also attended one where Peyton Manning threw six touchdown passes against us. Point is: a weird T-Bird opponent can be fun, but the game feels cooler when it’s against a familiar foe. And this year it’s our most familiar foe: those damn Green Bay Packers.
Can Green Bay build on last week’s kinda surprising win against the Chargers? Has Jordan Love (henceforth The Lover, but said aloud like Will Ferrell and Rachel Dratch from those SNL sketches where they’re the old and horny professors Roger and Virginia) turned a corner in his play? Has their defense rallied into form? We waxed Green Bay pretty good in an early-season Thursday Nighter. The game was more lopsided than the final score (34-20) indicated. The issue wasn’t settled until well into the second half, but it never once felt like the Lions were in danger. (Side note: I don’t care enough to look it up, but I’d bet this is the first time two divisional teams have had both their yearly games on Thursdays.) The Pack has improved since then, but so have we. We went through an injury mini-wringer but have come out the other side relatively healthy thus far.
I suppose this matchup doesn’t look or feel too different from the Week 4 tilt. I expect Green Bay to put up a respectable fight, but after concerted efforts to think without bias about these two teams, I keep reaching the same conclusion: the Lions are a little bit better. Eventually that disparity in quality will come through and the Lions will wear the Pack down. But by how much? That’s the any-amount-of-dollars question. The line at press time favors the Lions by 7.5. That doesn’t seem too huge at first glance, but the Lions barely covered against the Chargers (and only because the line moved to -2.5 late) and failed to do so against the lowly Bears. I wouldn’t say we’re in a slump, because we won those close calls, but we haven’t been close to our best these past two weeks.
I expect that to change this week. And this feeling speaks in a grander sense to the changing expectations of this Lions team. Time was, if the Lions were looking shaky at all it was portending certain doom. This season, two weeks of “not bad, but we for sure could be better” feels like we’re due for something better. It’s kinda incredible. Little things like this seem like the physical world manifestations of all of Dan Campbell’s maniacal peccadilloes. All his hyper-caffeinated Hulk-ness permeates throughout not just the organization but the fanbase as well. With that in mind, I’ll state here that I’m hook, line and sinker on this theory and I’m therefore picking the Lions to win and cover.
T-BIRD WEEK’S OTHER GAMES OF WHICH TO TAKE HEED
Commanders (+10.5) @ Cowboys — If the Commanders didn’t just get embarassed by the lowly Giants this pick would be easy. The Cowboys are rolling and, more importantly, rolling in a relatively under-the-radar (by Cowboy standards) fashion. Not a huge amount of hype and the subsequent pressure on them. The division looks to belong to Philly and Dallas seems (in a good way) on cruise control into the 5-seed and a playoff date with whatever mess comes out of the NFC South. I kind of like that headspace for them and again, if it wasn’t for the previous week’s embarassment, picking against Washington here would be easy. Ah, screw it. T-Bird is for the ‘Boys (and the Lions). Let’s go with the Cowboys to cover. The two perm Thanksgiving teams will remind America why these great traditions are ours.
Niners (-7) @ Seahawks — Anyone else think it was eerie how Aaron Donald massacred Geno-no-no last week? Especially when there was that early season incident where Geno was caught on a hot mic going, “Oh my God!” as he was staring down the barrel of an Aaron Donald hit? It’s like Geno was the only one on Earth who knew that Aaron Donald’s moving body was destined to devastate his own. Geno has prescience of his own doom. Speaking of doom, if he doesn’t play in this game the Niners will win by 20. Even if he does play, the Niners are fully back from their slump and looking like the steamrollers they were in the early going. The only way this stays close is if the Niners are more emo than they let on and their performance suffers because they’re sad about not being home on T-Bird. I don’t think they’re that sentimental, I think they’re ruthless cover machines in situations like this. Gimme those Niners to seriously take care of business. They’ll remind people that the NFC isn’t sole property of the Eagles just yet.
Jaguars (-1.5) @ Texans — The AFC South Championship Game? Probably. Kudos to Houston for an outstanding showing thus far. They’re better than even my readjusted expectations. I’ve been wrong picking against them several times this season, but I refuse to learn that lesson. I picked the Jags to win this division and I’m sticking by that. I think Lawrence is still not maxing out. His potential upside, plus the notion that eventually these Texans have to start showing their rookie-ness makes me think the Jags are gonna get the better of this one. The Jags won a playoff game, for goodness sake. They’re not old warhorses, but they’ve got some legit experience in pressure cooker game scenarios. I think that comes through here and the Jaguars will cover in hostile territory.
Rams (+1.5) @ Cardinals — I was stoked to see some of the good Kyler Murray come out last week. It means chaos for the Cardinals, who now have huge questions to answer this off-season about which direction they’re taking the franchise. Drafting a QB seemed like a no-brainer six weeks ago. But if Murray is serviceable for them it weirdly feels like they’re kinda stuck with him. There’s a lot of schadenfreude when non-Lions teams have these potentially huge stakes moments. Despite the return of the tiny prince, I think the Cardinals are still pretty bad. The Rams still have an outside chance at a wild-card spot. Stafford is back. Nacua looks to have broken past his rookie wall. This game is in a Stafford-and-Donald-friendly environment. I think I like the road dogs! Take those Rams.
Last week: 3-2-0
Season: 34-19-1
That’s all for the T-Bird Weekend Previews and Predictions. Last week I said I’d delve into what happened to this column’s former sponsors. Namely, Disney+ and R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Company. Alas, the Diz Folks and their army of lawyers got wind of my planned divulging and I was slapped with an injunction preventing me from spilling the proverbial tea. Rest assured, I’m fighting it. I’m not some tuck-tail-when-I-say-I’ll-fight ninny like… I dunno, Jim Harbaugh. Thanks so much for reading. I hope all of you have a terrific holiday weekend full of good food, fun family, old friends, festive cheer, effective rest and happy feelings. Auf Wiedersehen!
