This is gonna be relatively short because the entire staff here is very tired from a very busy week. Indeed, press time for our Week Two column is barely gonna make it onto the Internet before the 13:00 EDT kickoffs. Let’s talk about the interval between Week One and Week Two in the NFL. There are always overreactions, positive and negative. There are also those ones that feel like well-within-reason reactions like, “I might have underestimated the greatness of the Niners,” and, “Oh my gosh did I really predict a Bob Saleh-coached team to beat the Chiefs and make the Super Bowl?!” Personal panics aside, it’s important not to totally overreact to Week One results, because the reality is this: we know a single week’s worth of information more than knowing nothing. And that single week is a flawed sample anyway! It’s Week One, the weirdest and least accurately representative week of the season. Week Two is the first “real” week, i.e. it’s the first week a team has to prepare for a game starting a day or two after playing a game, which is the circumstance they’ll face throughout the vast majority of the season. A team’s Week Two performance is a much more accurate measure of their acumen than Week One. This is especially true when you factor in that so few teams play any of their starters in the preseason.
Speaking of, why don’t teams play starters for 1-4 possessions in the preseason? Not a half, not even a quarter. Just a few possessions. It’s obvious that a regular season game has a totally different intensity than practices, no matter how intense your drills are. Even joint practices against another team fail to measure up to the experience one goes through in a regular season game. There are physiological reactions to this intensity that can’t by simulated. Adrenaline and cortisol levels that occur in a game just can’t be simulated in practice or scrimmages. Not even joint practices, which just seem like table-settings for fights. In fact, I’d argue that the risk of injury is just as high in joint practices and thud-speed drills as it would be if you played starters for 3 sets of downs in the preseason. Teams that completely punt the preseason pay a small price in Week 1. Sometimes they’re able to overcome it. Definitely saw that with the Lions. Sometimes it really bites them in the ass. Think I saw that with the Bengals and maybe the Jets. Teams that embrace the preseason, albeit carefully, can reap Week 1 benefits. Saw that in a positive fashion with the Chiefs, who were smart enough to have their starters dip their toes in the preseason turf. At any rate, teams’s approaches to the preseason change over time. Not even a decade ago, starters played almost a full quarter (usually in Game 3). Maybe some of the craftier coaches will see the malaise and sloppiness that pervades in Week One performances and adjust their preseason approach/workload. But that’s the future. Let’s delve into the now! Week Two picks ho!
WEEK TWO PICKS: WHEN VIDEO GAME CONSOLES HAD RESET BUTTONS THAT REACTED QUICKLY, THOSE WERE GOOD TIMES
Let’s review last week. It was a money-making week, though it was the worst 5-game record you can have and still call it a money making week. 3-2. Nothing to write home about, but we’ll take it. There are several worse alternatives. I’m not a big numbers guy, but I’m 99% sure that 3 wins is better than 2 or 1 or none.
Luck was fickle, as she often is. God love her. Only one of the three wins felt and looked rock-solid. Chargers over Raiders. You can tell from my explanation that it was my most confident pick. And, it turns out, rightfully so. Despite the cover not coming until a little late in the game, it never once felt in doubt. First-year Harbaugh the Lesser might as well be called Rockne Lombardi. You could see the trickle-down effect of his fabled enthusiasm every time the Chargers registered a good play. I might regret not slotting them in for more wins in the Mega Preview. Other than the Chargers W, luck was flinging my picks around like a person who got way into yo-yo tricks. Luck was completely on our side in 2 of the wins. And luck totally abandoned us in the 2 losses. No middle ground with Luck in Week 1. The Bears offense looked like Tom Hanks near the end of Philadelphia. But gonzo special teams, an opportune deef and a bow-wrapped gift from Will Levis led to the tidy cover. Luck also was a sweet lady when it came to the Lions. Despite their rustiness and a true yeoman’s effort from the Rams, the Lions were able to ride their world-class rookie kicker into overtime and then it kind of just hit Ben Johnson like a bowl of lighting: “Why don’t we just try shoving their asses all over the damn field?” I openly pleaded to luck on Twitter — evoked her name and acknowledged our need of her blind allegiance to steal the W when the Rams had all the momentum late in the 4th. Thankfully, she fully obliged.
Luck didn’t oblige one bit in the Green Bay non-cover. An early, tone-setting touchie called back because of 12 guys on the field — another mistake that would perhaps be mitigated by a smidgen of preseason reps — and a missed FG prevented what I thought was a pretty safe bet. The other loss came on the hook when the Texans couldn’t win by 3 against the Titans. Kudos to Vegas (the synecdoche for the gambling industry handicappers, not the Raiders) for that dastardly half-point and their usual Vegas acuity. But gosh, not covering by a half-point when you give up three totally bonkers touchies from Tone Richardson feels like them making you pay for an already-existing dent in a rental car when you return it. It’s like, “No, that was there. It was totally there.” Let’s move on to this week’s completely guaranteed and accurate picks.
Last Week: 3-2-0
Season: 3-2-0
Lifetime: 58-33-3
Niners (-4.5) @ Vikings — Both teams were pretty impressive in Week One against New York opponents, but the Niners beat the far better of the Gotham teams. And they also looked totally physically dominant. And they’re getting healthier. I’m a bit wary of going against a home dog in their home opener, but I think the Niners are an excellent TCB team with the requisite running game to go with it. With great ball control they’ll limit the chances Darnold has to hook up with Jefferson, and the Saint Frankie defense will make the Vikes try to win it with their lesser players anyway. I punt the points take San Francisco to maintain their hot start.
Chargers (-4.5) @ Panthers — They say to avoid betting on favorites in Week Two, but I can’t help it. Gotta go with the gut. The Panthers looked truly awful in Week One. They looked bad in a way that doesn’t get cured just by playing at home. And Harbaugh the Lesser’s defense seems to be way better than advertised, particularly in the pass rush. I see no way in which Bryce Young can muster more than 16 points against them, and I like the resurgent JK Dobbins to complement Herbert’s yeoman’s efforts in the passing game and put up at least 21. Math checks out. Much like deciding how to put energy into your phone, we’re going with the Chargers.
Rams (+1.5) @ Cardinals — The Rams are solid, man. Even with their enormous slew of injuries they still pushed the Lions to the brink. Stafford and McVay are just a great combo, able to plan around all kinds of roadblocks and piece together production from seemingly impossible positions. And LA can run the ball a little better than most originally thought. This is less a pick against the Cardinals, a team that really confused me in the first week, and more a pick against the Rams going 0-2. Let’s grab the points and the Rams to cover.
Falcons (+6) @ Eagles — Even if he wasn’t a Spartan, I’d have always really liked Kirk Cousins. His story is terrific and he’s proven himself a pretty great QB when he’s been somewhat of an afterthought ever since high school. But last week was, I think, a game’s worth of irrefutable evidence that it’s pretty much over. Achilles injuries are tough for anyone to overcome, but especially so when the person who suffered the injury wasn’t ever particularly mobile to begin with. He’s playing behind a line that isn’t very solid and the Eagles, despite their flaws, can get good pressure. The Philly offense is excellent, too. The Packers have a pretty talented defense and even they couldn’t keep up for four quarters. Saquon might prove to be the best signing of the offseason. Fly with the Eagles in the battle of the birdies.
Buccaneers (+7.5) @ Lions — I love the Lions very much. Should be obvious by now. But this line just seems huge to me. The Bucs are not bad at all. They can protect Baker well and Baker can chuck it good. To two very good receivers. The Lions had their hands full covering Coop Kupp and Puka last week. I actually think Mike Evans and Godwin will prove more challenging. I think the Lions will eke this one out, but my gut tells me it will be much closer than the line. Picks aren’t about siding with your team, they’re about siding with your wallet and attempting to seduce Lady Luck. I think the Lions score a lot but I foresee Tampa Bay being able to mostly keep pace. We’re taking the Bucs and feeling icky about it.
That’s all we’ve got for Week Two. This autumn is getting busier every day, but we’re gonna keep churning out the greatest picks and takes on the Internet. Let’s hope this summer ends and we can get temperatures back down into livable levels. Sick of the heat, gimme the chilly! Auf Wiedersehen!
