Let’s start with why I’m here: Washington (+9) @ Lions — The season after your team comes pretty close to glory is weird. You came kinda close last year, so you’re probably gonna be kinda good. At least, you’re expecting to be. And in the particular case of these Lions, we all really expected them to be pretty good. Maybe not 15-2. I myself thought my 14-3 predicksh was kinda rosy. But we thought they’d be, at the absolute worst, a really tough and solid team that played smart and full-tilt all 60 minutes. Anything on top of that is gravy. Frankly, for yours truly this will always be the case. But the season immediately following a close-but-no-cigar season feels different, even when it’s the Lions — who I’ll always feel are playing with a bit of house money solely due to their staggering historical ineptitude.
When you’re hoping for some goodness, albeit tempering your expectations a bit, and then your team not only pulls off a 15-2 but a 15-2 while being quite hampered by a huge number of key injuries, you begin to wonder about stuff far beyond the boundaries of the field. What if the other shoe doesn’t fall? What if this is just how good we are even with the injuries factored in? What if the ceiling only raises from here and the floor is concrete? What if we’ve become so culturally impressive as an organization that the guys who’ve replaced our starters begin playing like them? Does “team of destiny” status ever actually exist? If so, do we meet whatever criteria there are? Are the Lions just that dialed in that they’re somehow manifesting this remarkable run through will? You can begin to tailspin, but upward, whatever that’s called. It’s fun. But then the Wild Card round plays out, and you get your opponent, and even though it’s the one you thought you’d get, things have suddenly become just interesting enough to make a seasoned fan feel slightly uncomfortable.
Jayden Daniels is obviously pretty good. It seems as though he’s playing with the same kind of “poise and moxie of a man beyond his years” à la CJ Stroud last year. He’s accurate and doesn’t turn the ball over a lot, which could be so enormous in this game. He’s handling the pressure well, and far beyond just being a game manager. They’re asking a ton of him and he’s up to the task. Out of all possible remaining QBs in the playoffs, the Lions are playing the one on which there is the least tape. His receivers are dangerous. The secondary will need to be sharp. And broken plays can be dangerous with Daniels. If our front seven doesn’t bring it he could really wreak havoc with his ability to improvise long runs from scrambles. On the defensive side of the ball, they’re certainly not world-beaters but they’re quick and opportunistic. If we even give them a slight edge with a dumb turnover or poor execution on a critical fourth, those things could build up to give them the juice they need to pull the big upset. They have some iron-clad vets and capable coaches; they’re a smart team. They didn’t end put up a 13-5 because their opponents felt like being nice. There’s a lot to be concerned about fro Washington if you look at their team in a vacuum.
But this game isn’t being played in a vacuum. It’s not an abstract competition of who can be described with words most dangerously. The Commanders have to play an actual team. A good team. The Lions! In Ford Field! It is going to be thoroughly bananas inside that building, and Daniels will need to discover new depths within himself from which to draw poise and execution, because this environment will be that crazy. I know SEC honks love to act like their fans invented the idea of loud masses of people, but ask Terrion Arnold about the loudest building he’s played football in. There’s nothing to compare to the dynamically deafening din that a Ford Field crowd gives the Lions. And while I doubt crowd noise will take someone of Daniels’s skill out of the game, it’ll affect him, even if only in small ways: cause small hesitations, make him repeat things loudly, maybe increase his body’s stress responses.
But let’s put everything aside from home field advantage to making up for last year’s playoff failure to the Commanders themselves. This game can be made real, real simple if the Lions execute just one facet of one phase of the game: running the ball. Monty’s back and by all accounts is champing at the bit. If that’s true, combined with the heater Jah’s on, Washington won’t be on the field for more than 25 minutes. The Lions still have the best O-Line in the league. They have the most effective RB combo in the league as well. To complement that, the Lions have a QB who’s so devastating in play-action that DBs are forced to stay honest lest they be burnt by an embarrassing margin.
Maybe Washington comes out swinging and catches the Lions with one on the chin. It’s possible. They haven’t played each other yet. Campbell would be facing a coach who employs a somewhat similar style. Conventional wisdom says Washington will want to take the proverbial air out of the ball (if they can). This one might not be the early blowout and comfy victory that most of us Lions fans are secretly hoping for. But we should handle these opponents. They’re not quite as good, they’re not nearly as seasoned. We have better players and they’ll be in a better mindset to take care of business. I’ve heard/read a lot pundits say Washington can surprise the Lions, but I think the opposite will prove true. I think Washington will be the team that ends up somewhat surprised. I think they’ll expect the Lions to take them ever-so-lightly and be stunned when Detroit comes out as if we were playing for the fate of the planet. I like the Lions to take care of business and let whoever we’re playing in the NFC Championship game know: it’s going to be a painful, exhausting Sunday for you next week in Detroit. Lions flex on ’em a bit and avenge 1/12/92.
Let’s talk about the rest (all 3) of the games on this, in many people’s opinion (including my own), the best football weekend of the year. DIVISIONAL ROUND PICKS: IT’S POSSIBLE DAN CAMPBELL TECHNICALLY HAS AN ARRHYTHMIA BUT IT’S ALL GOOD BECAUSE DOCTORS DISCOVERED HIS HEART JUST BEATS TO THE OPENING RIFF OF “ENTER SANDMAN” ON REPEAT IT’S A PHYSIOLOGICAL MARVEL
Texans (+8.5) @ Chiefs — Our legions of regular readers need no reminder that MiWriTheLi.com has a well-documented inability to correctly pick a game involving this season’s Houston Texans. The mental block and self-fulfilling bad luck prophecies are quite strong. Gonna have to start fresh with thoughts about the Texans, try to be as objective as possible, and eschew all Costanza-ing. Cold weather, Andy Reid after a bye, and a presumed injection of new life into Mahomes and Kelce has me thinking the Chiefs are going to romp in this one. Big line be damned, we’re going with the home team. Chieftains.
Rams (+6.5) @ Eagles — Another large road dog. Stafford isn’t as affected by the cold as national pundits seem to be implying this week. I think he shows up for this one, maybe even has the Rams in the lead for a sec. But Philly’s finding their footing in the run game. There’s a decent chance that Staff, Coop, and Pook will be largely nullified by a Philly game plan centered around dominating time of possession. Eagles and Lions should have similar game plans. I called a Motown-Philly NFC title game in the preseason. Can’t abandon that now. Gimme those Eagles.
Ravens (-1.5) @ Bills — Like the Buffalo/KC game a few years back with the 13-second drive, this almost feels predestined to be an amazing game. But I wouldn’t be so sure. Obviously Buffalo is very good, and Josh Allen can be as prolific as anyone in a big game. But I saw something different in the Ravens last week. They just looked several cuts above most other teams I’ve seen this season. Derrick Henry in particular looks especially lean and quick, while losing none of his signature power. I think Baltimore’s deef can come up with 3-4 more stops than the Buffalo D will, and with the line being that small it kinda makes the pick easy. I’m so sorry, Buffalo. I think the Ravens are ultra-galvanized for this and win by 10ish.
That’s all we got for Divisional Round Weekend! It’s always a tiny bit of a letdown after the holidays are over, but we here hope you’re having a terrific start to 2025. Don’t be discouraged if you fall behind a bit or slip on a resolution. Positive life changes don’t have to be executed perfectly for them to matter, or even for them to be effective. As discouraging as it can feel, its important to acknowledge that sometimes your improvement journey will be one step forward, two steps back. But adopt a broader perspective and you’ll see the balance of steps has led you forward quite a bit. If you wander off your new trail, just take a moment to clear your head and find it again, friend. Have a terrific weekend, dear readers. And GO LIONS!!! Auf Wiedersehen!
