Last Week: 2-3-0
Regular Season Final Record: 55-31-3
I’m going to write this next paragraph in my best impression of Hemingway. The weather’s turned frozen and windy. It feels like I need to at least feign some barrel-chestedness. And there’s thematic motifs throughout Hemingway’s work that jibe with a lot of storylines in this first week of playoffs. Especially concerning the Lions v. Rams game. Anyway, if there’s any writer to emulate when it’s all on the line and your constitution is in the crucible, it’s ol’ Papa. Plus, he spent summers and winters testing his mettle in the forested wilderness of northern Michigan, so it’s fitting. Without further ado, The Hemingway Paragraph.
Thursday I walked my puppy. It forecasted to be the last walkable day for weeks. She postured to defecate where a cul-de-sac met its cross street. I stood, poop bag in hand. I’d become a waiter for poop. I was obvious and helpless and immobile until biology’s results would deign to appear before me. An impatient driver’s horn shocked me out of my stupor. I waved the bag, indicating my purpose. The gesture was ineffective or ignored. But the poop was of short duration. A fraction of one moment was all the room given for hope. The driver was too impatient to allow for my collection, my humble gathering. Too impatient. Maybe too stupid. It didn’t matter. In her haste she drove squarely over the recently created canine waste. The substance embedded itself deep within the tread of her rear passenger tire. I witnessed this. I gently eased into a relaxing hot tub of justice. Retribution, although minor; this repeated over and over again in my head. Comeuppance: life’s ubiquitous leitmotif. If your ear is trained to hear it.
A lot of powerful words start with “re” revenge, retribution, redemption, repression. Is it the “re”? By which I mean, because these words occur in relation to other actions that have happened previously, are the emotional stakes naturally higher? If a current action is almost entirely predicated on a previous one, and it’s some sort of course correction, does that kick the intensity up a notch, if only a little? I say yes. Which is why this Lions v. Rams game has so much gravity. Let’s just plow through the obvious. Goff got jilted by the Rams. By McVay. McVay knows him, his weaknesses, almost all his peccadilloes. Stafford was beloved in Detroit. We weren’t mad when he wanted out. We were happy for him when he immediately won a Super Bowl. But now he somehow gets to have the feel-good, rag-tag type underdog team? Against us? And these faux good guys are gonna end our first really good season in a long time? At home in the playoffs? Fear. Rage. Suffering.
So yeah, even before you dissect the football to be played, there are a lot of emotions going into this game. The Jims and Joes and Xs and Os seem pretty close. It is, after all, the playoffs. Matchups will occur between teams naturally closer in overall aptitude. One thing that totally terrifies me, alluded to above, is McVay’s intimate knowledge of Goff. That has to count for a play or two or nine come Sunday night. Small tendencies, habits of which Goff himself might not even be aware; McVay knowing Goff is an x-factor of potentially gigantic impact.
This game is centered around the chutzpah of four men. He who shows the most focus and wins the day out of these four men will determine the winner of the game: Sean McVay, Jared Goff, Aaron Glenn, Raheem Morris. McVay is a great motivator and personality handler. Not a good play caller or strategist. Seriously. Don’t believe me, watch the tape. There’s a whole postseason’s worth. Two years ago. A superlatively talented Rams team won a Super Bowl despite his coaching, not because of it. If he can just not coach poorly in-game that’s a W for the Rams. But I think his ego demands he make some kind of impact on the game. And I bet somehow that decision goes our way. We’ll see.
For Goff, this is — so far — the most critical game of his career. The Supe disaster he had can be explained away. He’s a grown man vet now though. And he’s playing against the guy who jilted him poorly. McVay tried to ditch him through a text like he was nothing! That has to burn. I hope Goff (maybe with Campbell’s help) can alchemize that hurt into his sharpest focus. We’re gonna need him to play close to his best. If I’m being honest, some of his press comments this week concerned me. He was deflective. (Paraphrasing) “Oh, it’s not about how I feel about the Rams. This is about our town having a home playoff game!” I hope he was just doing rah-rah as a front. I think he has to achieve that rage/focus state like Magneto did when he levitated that submarine in X-Men: First Class.
Aaron Glenn is another man on whom this game largely hinges, maybe more so than anyone else. Stafford is familiar here, obviously. The Rams, at least on offense, aren’t going to be overly intimidated by the loud crowd. Glenn has to have his defense fighting like Comanches for four hours. I think the atmosphere will help with that, I’m not overly concerned about energy level. But Glenn must play this advantage masterfully. I’ve said it all year, but only because it’s true: when we blitz from spots outside the tackles and perform lots of twists and stunts on the interior of the line and show a lot of pre-snap dynamics, our defense sings. We cause havoc. We feel dangerous. And we’re skilled enough to snag a turnover or three. But when he gets vanilla and base we get hammered. We need their offense to play stressed, at least. Hopefully “bothered” or “hounded”. This comes from — and pays dividends after — keeping them having to account for 1-2 extra wrinkles per snap all night.
The last guy I mentioned is Raheem Morris. Similar to Glenn, only the LA defense is a mostly no-named crew led by a single all-timer who’s only barely past his prime. They haven’t made huge headlines this season, but they might be able to harass Goff. Our O-Line will obviously have some challenging matchups. If Morris can harass Goff, that might unravel a lot of things for the Lions. The Rams’s style of complementary football makes me think that we might not be able to make this game a “slow it down, grind the clock”-type game. If their defense can get to Goff, Stafford will feed on that energy like a show-dog vampire.
I hate doing this, but this is what I keep landing on no matter how many different ways I try to look at it: the Rams are going to beat us. I might not know exactly how, but I know why: because all else being equal, bet on the Lions providing new and unique types of misery. Losing to Stafford and having this season end like this would hurt bad. And my history as a Lions fan tells me if it can hurt bad, it will hurt bad. So, sadly, I have to pick the Rams plus the 3.5. Let’s hope I’m off. I’m feeling off. I got ill this past week and sliced my thumb open.
WILD CARD ROUND CHRON ORDER
Browns (-2) @ Texans — I like the Flacco story to keep going, he looks pretty solid! And nothing travels in the NFL playoffs like a good defense. Houston was a great story but if you look at the bones of the story closely it’s “decent team barely wins awful division”. I see the Browns holding Houston to about 17 and I think they can score 20. The math takes care of itself, the Browns will take care of the Texans.
Dolphins (+4.5) @ Chiefs — Maybe the coldest game on record. “Broadcast” on a third-tier streaming service. I heard a theory that Peacock wanted this game on Peacock cuz they’re banking on Swifties. If that’s a tactic that works out I have to come to terms that I truly don’t understand young people. Not saying I think I get ‘em anyway, but it would bewilder me if a lot of people see this game. Shame, too. Seeing games in extreme elements is a lot of fun if you’re watching from the comfort of your home. I’m zag-zigging on this, that’s the only reason. I can’t find anyone picking the Dolphins, so that’s what I’m doing. The Dolphins are the pick to swim in the ice!
Steelers (+9.5) @ Bills — I can’t imagine how stress-free it must feel being a Steeler fan. Sure, you’re not scaling the mountain that often. But the NFL isn’t a race up a mountain. It’s an ocean. And Captain Tomlin constantly steers his team into placid waters, avoiding storms no matter how many seem to surround him. You’d think the weather would be doing them a favor this week but I see Steeler toughness taking a hit without Teej Watt. And it’s not like Buffalo is stranger to crazy weather. I think they open the playoffs with a big statement like they did against the Pats a few years back. Buffalo’s gonna win big, but good season Steelers.
Packers (+7) @ Cowboys — I hate the Packers so freaking much. What was I thinking when I ranked them that low on my mid-season Power Rankings? I was asking for trouble with that one. Here they are, in the playoffs again. Looking kinda dangerous. Plus they ruined our T-Bird! This is an aspirational pick. We’re being open about it and channeling that openness to Mike McCarthy. Just breathe and relax and be present, McCarthy. You too, Dakota. You’re a more talented team top to bottom. You’re at home. TCB and on to the next one. Dallas is the pick because gosh darn the Packers to heck.
Eagles (-3) @ Buccaneers — The way the Eagles have fallen apart has perplexed me more than almost anything else about this season. Injuries seem to be a part of it but I’d swear it looks like most of them have been zapped with some sort of apathy ray gun or something. Maybe they’re tired. They’ve been high-profile and long-seasoned for a while now. Maybe the tank just can’t hold as much gas for some of their usually stalwart vets. Eagles looking rough. And I’ve been kinda sweet on the Bucs since August. But boy they looked awful last week as well. This is the most difficult game to pick imo. Eagles ostensibly have a more talented squad, but with Hurts dinged and no Brown, I’ll take the Buc home dogs and thanks for the points.
So that’s it for Wild Card Weekend. I hope this article finds you well and your New Year is off to a smashing start. We’ll be back here with picks next week regardless of what happens with the Lions, but wouldn’t it be so great if the Lions were back too? I don’t need to get into what it would be like to watch our boys win a playoff game. Succinctly, it’d be a level of sports satisfaction most of us don’t know or can barely remember. Here’s to Motown and her sports fortunes. Auf Wiedersehen!
