Woo-hooooo!!! Golly does it feel great to be back in the ol’ writing chair — and this particular writing chair to boot; a corner table at my favorite nearby Dunky’s where I’ve got a Boston Cream (I think they call it Kreme because the filling doesn’t contain an atom of dairy), a French Cruller and a large coffee (black because I’m not some silly freak). Not gonna lie, it was a little bit touch-and-go as to whether or not MichaelWritesTheLions.com was going to return for its second season. Not due to any reticence among our writers and staff, but mainly because of a figurative fumble on the exchange between our original registrar Google Domains and the (thus far mostly) loathsome oafs over at Squarespace, a company I’ve almost exclusively associated with the “fast forward 30 seconds” button on the Apple Podcasts app. A series of snafus had us scrambling and considering options like audio previews but some 11th hour heroism on the part of our CTO ensured we remain in our bread-and-butter format: long, rambling, difficult-to-parse screeds that may or may not adhere to the rules of good grammar and accurate spelling.
Nevertheless, we persisted. And in taking a step back to get a broader view of things, how could we not? What on this Earth could keep us from writing about the juggernaut Honolulu Blue & Silver? Our beloved Detroit Lions are in a very particular sweet spot vis-à-vis their position relative to the rest of the league: they’re “damn sure” contenders. Us Detroiters have been lucky enough to experience this most recently with the Early-10s Tigers. Before that it was the Double-Ohs Pistons and Red Wings, with the Wings remarkably retaining that status starting from the early years of the Clinton administration. We’ve not been totally devoid of enthralling teams here in the Motor City — in the big picture we’re luckier than most — but the fact that the Lions are here is unprecedented in the Super Bowl era. And if the record turnout at the NFL Draft wasn’t indication enough, let me clue you in on a poorly-kept secret: Detroit is, chiefly, a football city. Most cities are football cities these days, and we’re unflinchingly loyal to the Wings and Tigers (we completely bandwagon for the Pistons), but nothing gets our blood pumping like the excitement of football. And if our beloved team is squarely in the mix of top teams as they are now, the sky is the limit for our enthusiasm and giddiness.
Which brings us to the raison d’être of this post: Season Two is upon us. It is, as they used to say, nigh. What magical stories and unforeseeable plot twists are in the future for us fans in the 2024-25 NFL Season? What incredible feats of glory and perseverance lie in wait? We’re going to do a Mega Preview column; each division covered, team records predicted, season awards prognosticated and an unbiased, completely objective and reasonable take on the fate of the glorious squad that is The Leos. And if that weren’t enough, this column is going to provide dear reader with a cheeky betting preview of Week 1. That’s right, the illustrious game picks are back and we’re looking to build on last year’s absolutely stunning romp through the regular season (55-31-3). I’d make sure I’m seated comfortably and in an environment devoid of any distractions like family or responsibility: this one’s gonna be a schlep. Enough table-setting! We’re glad to be back, it’s time to figuratively chow down.
PLAYER AWARDS
MVP — Patrick Mahomes: Admittedly, this is neither an exciting nor novel pick, he’s been the best football player on Earth for a while now. But you’re getting 5-to-1 odds on a guy with a knack for scoring with the football, entering his age 29 season, where he’ll be at the ideal mix of physical and mental prowess. The offense around him is simultaneously re-loaded and well-seasoned and it’ll be a considerable upset if his team doesn’t win the 1-seed in the AFC. Book it. ||| OPOY — C.J. Stroud: I see the yards and touchies (Some people are saying “tuddies” as a shorthand for touchdowns. That’s not gonna fly here. Touchies.) piling up in Houston, and this savvy sophomore will obviously be at the heart of that. The only thing that’ll keep him from the MVP is the late December loss he’ll be handed in the Texans’s head-to-head against the Chiefs and Mahomes. For this, Offensive Player of the Year becomes his consolation prize. ||| DPOY — Aidan Hutchinson: because the Lions offense is going to be so prolific, their opponents will be forced to try and pass a bunch as the games wear on. The Detroit D-Line will pin its ears back, and Hutch is going to deliver more sacks than a guy GrubHubbing for a college town White Castle on a Saturday night. ||| RooksOTY — Marv Harry, Quinyon Mitchell: Marvin Harrison Jr. should go by “Marv Harry” because of Home Alone, a movie that is impossible to dislike. I watched him absolutely devastate the Big Ten for a few years and I’ll be genuinely shocked if he doesn’t have a Pro Bowl-caliber rookie campaign, especially with a QB who really loves feeding his best targets. Caveat: gun to my melon I think Caleb Williams is more likely to win this award because the entire NFL media machine has already fervently declared him Windy City Jesus, but you only get +140 betting him as opposed to +700 on Marv Harry. Have fun out there. As for Quinyon Mitchell, I see him as a Sauce Gardner-y velcro presser in a division full of QBs who make, ummm, interesting decisions. I bet OCs try to test him out of spite for the first ~9 games of the season and then wisely stay away once he’s put the league on notice. Similar to the rookie year of the Sauceman.
DIVISIONS (alphabetically by conference acronym, then geographically clockwise starting up top but also saving the NFC North for last because… well, because)
AFC North — Ravens 12-5, Bengals 11-6, Steelers 9-8, Browns 8-9. Probably the most solid division from top to bottom, i.e. even though I’m predicting the Browns to finish last they’re still a solid team. I wish them Lake Erie brethren luck, and their deef should be Schwartz-level gonzo again, I’m just totally unsure what to expect from the QB spot and I don’t think they have the horses to keep up on the scoreboard every week. The Steelers, by rule, cannot be bad. But they’re making a dumb mistake starting Blacklemore (nickname for Russell Wilson I’m trying out) over Fields. Fields isn’t perfect but Wilson has matured into.. no other way to say it: an odd dude. His odd dude-itude takes mojo away from the whole squad. Ravens are an interesting case but I think the losses they had on the O-Line and losing their D-Cordy will be made up for by King Henry and a hungrier than ever Lamar. Plus, Harbaugh The Greater will figure out how to shore up any coaching deficiencies should they arise. The real wild card here, maybe the biggest wild card in the league, is the health of Joe Burrow. If he’s dealing, the Bengals can beat anybody. I like predicting healthy times and healthy outcomes, so we’re confidently slotting the Bengals in the playoffs.
AFC East — Jets 11-6, Bills 10-7, Dolphins 10-7, Patriots 3-14. Heaven help me, I’m in on the Jets. If all the injury ifs go their way, there’s little doubt they’ll be quite good. Rodgers has had a heaping spoonful of football mortality now, and I think his kinda insufferable zen-bro vibe will actually mesh well with that experience. I think he’ll be careful with his health the way he’s been careful with the ball for most of his career. And he doesn’t have to be Superman. There are terrific players all over the field for Gang Green on both sides of the ball. Lake Erie brethren Buffalo will likely take a small step back, but I still think they’re a playoff squad. I have that much faith in Josh Allen and I think Keon Coleman will be the second-best rookie receiver of the year once things shake out. I also don’t see a big drop off in Miami either. Tua and McD get each other, have confidence in each other. They don’t look so promising on defense but they might score ~30 a game. Of course, all these teams being good inevitably means there’s gotta be some truly bad teams. A lot are in the other divisions, but one that resides in the AFC East is New England. There’s just not a lot there. I think they’re content with chucking this year and waiting until the autumn of ’25 to begin trying in earnest again.
AFC South — Texans 10-7, Jaguars 10-7, Colts 7-10, Titans 5-12. Well, well, well! The division I haven’t cared about since Peyton Manning left is actually of mild interest again. Some people are super high on the Texans, and it may be well-founded. They were a buzz saw last year and I totally whiffed on seeing the greatness in Stroud and DeMeco Ryans. But I’m reminded of something Tony Kornheiser often says. Paraphrasing, Tony says, “There are 31 other teams in the league, each with well-paid coaching staffs who break down film.” I think the league will have better ideas on how to defend the Texans this year, so I don’t see them seriously contending for the 1-seed. Last year I predicted the Jags to win the South, and it looked solid for the first ~10 weeks but then injuries and silliness obliterated their second half. I see Trev Lawrence rising to the occasion in an under-the-radar “prove it” year. The Colts will win 1 or 2 they probably shouldn’t, but also lose a bunch they could win. Richardson is all over the place and I think Jonny Taylor is only 90% of the running back he used to be; that missing 10% makes the difference between game breaker and above-average back. As for the Titans, I don’t know what to say really. They jettisoned their best players and their excellent coach (who got a very raw deal). Picking them for five wins might be generous, but I wanna be a little generous to this whole division in a reverse jinx for the Lions.
AFC West — Chiefs 12-5, Chargers 9-8, Broncos 5-12, Raiders 4-13. I tried really hard to see more Ws for the Chargers. As much as I can’t stand the man, Harbaugh The Lesser is a terrific football coach, especially in his first year at a new spot. I think it’s fairly simple: his borderline manically enthusiastic weirdness becomes appealing when the people in his charge are left with no choice but to follow. But aside from Herbert there just aren’t many good players on the team. They might be a 10/10 on X’s and O’s, but they lack the Jims and Joes, no pun(s) intended. The Chiefs are the obvious favorites here and it would probably be the shock of the decade if they don’t come away with the division. A lot of people think the Broncos will improve with the departure of Blacklemore; I myself thought that they were only rookie lightning-in-a-bottle away from decency. But JJ McCarthy was their guy and they blew it. I think Sean Payton’s a good coach, I’ve just never had faith in Bo Nix. The Broncos aren’t gonna be that good. It’s only the apparent putridness of the Raiders that keeps them from the division cellar. Speaking of the Raiders… just… why? Why’d they do the things they did? How are they going to win football games with the team they’ve put together. Unless Antonio Pierce’s short-term mojo from last season portends some sort of hybrid Lombardi-Shula coaching acumen and Minshew has the absolute year of his life, I just don’t see many wins on the schedule. I give them four because maybe between Bowers and Adams they can get that lucky on jump-ball close ones.
NFC East — Eagles 11-6, Cowboys 10-7, Giants 7-10, Washington 4-13. He was a really, really great center. And a lot of their offensive success flowed from his mastery of line calls, but I feel like people are treating the retirement of Jason Kelce like Jordan leaving the Bulls. The Eagles still have really, really good players and a lot of toughness. Add in the highly variable threat of Saquon and it’s difficult to see them not eking out the Cowboys. Speaking of the Cowboys, they’ll be the Cowboys. Solid but not spectacular, somehow playing host to the Lions for the 600th time in a row. More attention than they deserve before an ignominious ending in the playoffs. The Giants crawl their way to 7 wins based on a super soft second half schedule. Washington is sneakily doing a Patriot-esque “we’ll get ’em next year”. Daniels might provide some highlights but there’s not a lot of blue chips on that roster and a dearth of depth. Weirdly, I think their fans will feel better about this season than an 8 or 9-win season under Snyder ownership. They appear to be heading in the right direction but Washington’s still a long ways away.
NFC South — Buccaneers 10-7, Falcons 8-9, Saints 8-9, Panthers 3-14. I correctly predicted the Bucs to claim this division last year and I’m not sure enough has changed to move off that rock. The only caveat is that if Kirk Cousins can play 17 games, they’ll give the Bucs a run for their money. But I don’t see that happening. For all their decency at the skill positions, the Atlanta O-Line might have 36-year-old Kirk scrambling to save his post-career health, and Cousins is Goff-ian in that he absolutely needs either a clean pocket or a rock-solid run game for effective play-action. I honestly don’t know what to make of the Saints. I feel like they’ll go the way Derek Carr teams always go: just short of the playoffs, hovering around .500 and like 3-4 plays from a W on most weeks. The Panthers will be bad. They made a huge gamble on Bryce Young. And Bryce Young might turn out to be halfway decent but halfway decent doesn’t come close to justifying the things they sacrificed to take him. Plus they have to play the Bears kinda early. If Bryce is outplayed by Caleb — and I’m pretty sure he will be — that’s gonna cast a distinct pallor over the rest of the Panther season. I’m enjoying the thought of shorting them most weeks.
NFC West — Rams 10-7, Niners 10-7, Seahawks 8-9, Cardinals 6-11. Too much bad mojo for the Niners, who are still totally loaded on both sides of the ball. But I feel like the book on Brock Purdy is getting read a little more. And if you can get that guy to flinch there’s potential for the whole thing to unravel. It won’t too often, that’s why I have them at 10 wins, but they won’t be the same team as last year. They’re slightly deflated. Taking advantage of that deflation will be the Rams who, despite the loss of one of the best D-Tackles of all time, will be a solid team that has the ability to put up plenty of points. The Seahawks will start strong due to an easy beginning schedule but fade down the stretch. I actually like the guy but Geno-no-no doesn’t have the juice to stay good for 17 games and teams will start loading the box against the run. The only team I feel great trepidation in predicting badness for is the Cardinals. They’re now two years removed from Steve Keim stink. They’re tough and game-y, and they now have an outstanding outside threat in Marv Harry. I just think they’re a year away, too reliant on rookies hopefully playing like veterans.
NFC North — Lions 13-4, Packers 12-5, Bears 9-8, Vikings 6-11. I’ll fully admit it: I’m way less sure we’re gonna win the division this year than I was last year. Lions fans were cautiously optimistic at the start of last season but confident by mid-October. I’m not sure things play out that way this season. In short: I’m a little nervous about how improved our division rivals are. Green Bay is good. Jordan Love took a while, but he’s rounded into his true form and unfortunately for us Leos fans that form is “excellent QB”. Their defense is nothing to sneeze at either, quite talented at every level. And while he might be a rookie (and a fully Gen-Z rookie at that), Caleb Williams looks like he has the improvisational talent and arm versatility that can generate true magic from broken plays. He looks capable of turning disasters into haymakers. The Vikings have excellent players too. Heck, they took us down to the wire last year with Nick Mullens under center. Say what you want about Sam Darnold but he’s an upgrade over Nick Mullens. But what is equal to all this improvement in the Pack, Bears and Vikes, there is an equal (if not greater) amount of improvement in the Lions. Our core from last year is faster, stronger, hungrier. We added excellent free agents and had an absolutely superb draft. Not to mention we retained the entirety of the best coaching staff in the league, crowned by our Leader of Men Dan Campbell. In what will assuredly be a season of attrition, the team with the strongest will is going to reign supreme. And our coach has our Lions in a position where they won’t budge from that perch. The other teams in the NFC North are quite good. But the Lions are also quite good and the Lions are the toughest. That will carry the day(s).
PLAYOFFS
AFC — Jets over Chiefs ||| NFC — Lions over Eagles
Supe 59 — The Lions finally get to their first Super Bowl only to meet the crusty old wizard who’s had our number for darn near 15 years, the man whose Green Bay career was ended on an interception by Kerby Joseph: Vision Quest Rodgers. The storylines are innumerable and repeated ad nauseam like we haven’t seen since the Jerome Bettis Supe 40 days. The nation is “split” on rooting for the lovable loser, perennial underdog Lions or the Joe Rogan crony who accused Jimmy Kimmel of frequenting Epstein Island. The Lions ride the mojo and a superb performance by the defensive front that almost literally buries Rodgers to a soul-levitating Super Bowl LIX victory. I become so stupefied I unwittingly shirk my professional responsibilities for several days while wandering the streets of Detroit openly weeping and hugging strangers so hard they have to go, “Take it easy, I have to breathe.” I finally come to my senses after the parade and realize that the one remaining victory I need to see is a Tigers World Series. That’s how this season ends, amigos. But as they say: enjoy the journey, not just the destination.
WEEK ONE PICKS: GENTLEMEN, TURN ON YOUR ENGINES. WAIT… IGNITE THEM? HOW DOES IT GO?
Packers (+2.5) @ Eagles (em São Paulo) — This one feels like a tidal pick. What’s a tidal pick? It’s mostly what it sounds like. You sense the changing of the tides. Both of these teams are good, but the vibes around Wisconsin are artery-clogging, hoppy and happy. Philly’s still a quarter of the way reeling from last season’s disastrous finish and might have a brief adjustment period to life without Kelce. Plus, and I have no evidence to back this up, my gut tells me the Brazilian crowd will root for the Packers. It’s like when Euro soccer teams come over here for their summer tours and Chelsea plays Racing Santander. Most people have no idea who the latter is so Chelsea naturally gets a majority of the crowd on their side. I’m not saying the Eagles aren’t well-known, but they’re not as internationally recognized as the Green Bay Packers. Also, and again for reasons I can’t explain, I feel like Matt LaFleur is gonna have his guys better adjusted than Nick Sirianni. Sirianni seems like a guy who complains about how things are different in a foreign country; how the wall outlets are “shaped funny” or how the Pizza Hut doesn’t taste the same. But maybe I’m wrong. That’s why it’s called a wager and not a know-y. I’ll take those Packers plus some points, obrigado.
Titans (+4.5) @ Bears — Show me whatcha got, you ursine braggarts. The level of hype for this Bears team — and I’ll fully admit it may be warranted — is a level of football hype I haven’t felt since the Michigan Wolverines hired Jim Harbaugh. It took them a while and there were some bumps in the road, but his leadership, such as it is, ultimately produced a championship for them and their fans. I don’t think the Bears have to win a title this season, but a loss in this game would be such an enormous “bloom off the rose”-type failure. That would be too lucky. And, weirdly, I don’t think Caleb’s got the mojo for close wins. For crying out loud, he was well-handled by a middling UCLA team. He couldn’t keep up with a Notre Dame QB that transferred in from football powerhouse Wake Forest. The kid is remarkably talented, but there’s evidence he’s a front runner. I don’t think Tennessee has it in themselves to keep this close, so if the Bears are gonna win, they’re gonna win and cover the Vegas zone spread at home. Am I attempting to buy a reverse jinx? That’s my business. Gimme those Bears, the bastards.
Texans (-2.5) @ Colts — If the Texans are a serious team, this is an easy pick. I think the Texans are legit, so it’s not a difficult pick to make. One thing I like about the Texans that definitely isn’t flash-in-the-pan is the defensive wizardry of DeMeco Ryans. He was a real belter when he was working for the Niners, and his scheming is so far working wonders down in Houston. I see Will Anderson having a huge day chasing around a very flappable Tone Richardson. I also like the idea of a QB staking claim to his division. Stroud took the division from Lawrence last year. Now there’s pressure on Richardson just to keep up, but Stroud has the knowledge that he can run these teams off the field. That confidence is gonna go a long way, and when you factor in what I think is a big discrepancy between Ryans and Shane Steichen, that spread looks very manageable. I’ll flick away the small spread and say, “Texans, please. To go.”
Raiders (+3) @ Chargers — I was a little shocked this spread was so low. I know the Chargers aren’t a deep team, but they have an outstanding QB and are debuting a coach with a well-documented history of doing excellent in the NFL. At home. Now, the “home” part of that might not be a slam dunk, as this game is taking place in LA, which I’m told remains Raiders territory. But Harbaugh’s too good to drop his first game to Gardner Minshew and Antonio Pierce. For goodness sakes, the Raiders have Ameer Abdullah on their roster. One matchup that’ll be fun to watch is how high pick Joe Alt deals with scary-looking Maxx (Dos Equis) Crosby. But aside from that, I see a very uneventful, methodical, 7 to 14-point victory here for the Chargers.
Rams (+3.5) @ Lions — Oh me, oh my! The Sunday Nighter to open the season! After opening last season with the Thursday Kickoff in K.C.! The NFL brass is actually giving credence and respect to the goodness of the Lions for consecutive seasons. The novelty still hasn’t worn off; I’m very psyched that we’re hosting the first Sunday Nighter and I’m extra chuffed it’s against the Rams. They’ll be solid, no doubt. We needed every bit of an excellent game to beat them in the playoffs last year (including an absolutely incendiary crowd whose level will be kinda hard to match), and even then it was by a point. Here’s a big point though: we’re entering this game very healthy, and the Rams definitely are not. Jared Verse might well turn out to be an outstanding pass rusher, but Decker and/or Sewell is gonna give him a rough start to his career. On the flip side, it looks like Reader is gonna see action. Him and Mac eating up blocks in the middle should give Hutch a good amount of one-on-ones and (perhaps more importantly) free up Jack Campbell and Anzo to play totally hair-on-fire. It’s the same story I always tell on this blog: if we really win the trenches, we really win the game. I think the former is very likely to happen, so I’m willing to plop some cheddar down on the latter. Let’s take those Lions and enjoy a good start to another glorious campaign!
Well that about wraps it up for the 2024 Season Mega Preview and your Week One picks against the spread! I’m glad to be writing about the Lions again and I’m so glad that you, dear reader, have decided to come back for the unequivocally best Detroit Lions coverage and takes available on the internet. The schedule is gonna be tighter this year, the road more challenging, but rest assured that MichaelWritesTheLions.com will be with you every step of the way to chronicle the ups, the downs, the sideways’s, and the things that move in directions our limited-to-3-dimension perspectives can’t truly comprehend. It’s my sincere and great joy to be bringing you these flawlessly hot takes, thanks for taking the time to read them. Have yourselves a great opening week and enjoy this nice transition from late summer to the early days of autumn. Auf Wiedersehen!
