Last week’s picks were a stupendously, laughably successful conundrum. First, the obvious: it feels good to get off the schneid, picks-wise. 5-0 weeks don’t just fall around all over the place like leaves. Until last week, we haven’t had the 5-0 magic yet this year, but it all came together and now we’re playing it cool with regard to building momentum. Like, right now I’m passing Luck on the sidewalk and we recognize each other but we also both recognize that neither of us wants to make a big “thing” out of it, so we both do an exaggerated up-nod in perfect concert and glide past, both getting exactly what they wanted out of the non-stop-n-chat. That’s the goal of luck-wrangling when you’re at a good point like we’re at right now: shredding the proverbial gnar. Right now we’re chugging along just real nice: perfect flow, just the right soupçon of emotional intuition, weird acknowledgement of metaphysical cause/effect without the slightest real understanding of the subject, all replete with delusions of grandiosity. But about those delusions of grandiosity: I didn’t think too much about the games last week. For crying out loud, I confidently picked against my own boys and bullseyed it. Least I’ve thought about the picks all year though for real. Had to not think. A little Del Close and Charna Halpern assisting to see if we should punt the hook, cha-cha. Yes, I just slipped into the Dennis Miller impression. It was exactly that kind of a week. Just kinda looked at the spreads on the screen and then I went into a numbers-y fugue state like in Rain Man or A Beautiful Mind or The Hangover, but instead of math formulas it was just a bunch generic little football players tackling each other and blocking and making moves on the line. No math, just gridiron football dark magic made manifest. Subconscious hallucinations and baseless interpretation of their meaning: the Michael Honer formula to gambling success! It felt like a real turning point, not just for the season, but for my extremely lay understanding (even that is being quite generous) of Daoism as well. So without further ado, let’s talk about Week 14 (sheesh) and what kind of luck is gonna play into what games and how. Let’s flow.
WEEK FOURTEEN PICKS: WANNA KNOW THE REST? BUY THE RIGHTS
Last Week: 5-0-0, This Season: 38-27-1, Lifetime: 93-56-4
Seahawks (+2.5) @ Cardinals — A sneaky great game out in the desert. Mathematically speaking, I’ve been told that this is a de facto playoff knockout game, which is kind fun to see with a decent chunk of the season still to go, but such has been the cannibalistic way of this season’s NFC West. I love when the divisional games have quick rematches. Seahawks won this one a few weeks ago at home. I don’t like Arizona’s chances to run the ball so much, which helps opposing defenses contain Kyler’s magic to a manageable level. Seattle has seemed really pro to me all season. Just guys who know they’re close and know that eventually things are gonna fall their way. I like Seattle’s chances not only in this game but eventually to win a playoff game as well. Fling a fish at ’em from across a crowded counter. Tourism!
Panthers (+12.5) @ Eagles — Hammer time! What a huge line. And I’ll save you the suspense: we’re punting these points. It’s nice that Bryce Young has improved and gotten himself to a competitive level, but this isn’t his scene. This Eagles deef is gonna have their best game of the year. I try really hard to think of the most points Carolina will be able to muster. 16 or 17. And I think if Philly has the ball a lot they’re very likely to get to 30 against this defense that might be starting to limp toward the finish line. I think the Eagles continue their monstrous roll in the wake of the Lions and cover this gigantic line.
Falcons (+5.5) @ Vikings — The Cousins Bowl! Kirk has gathered himself for a final thrust at glory, this time against the Vikings team that loved him with big money then a few years later was like, “That’ll do, pig”. The Falcons are still crazily still in the division lead, but that’s the South for ya. Unless Cousins and his offense magically gel up to a level they’ve yet to reach this season I think their goose is decidedly cooked. The Vikings are a defense that can get pressure on Cousins while playing zone, which isn’t something against which Kirk thrives. And on the reverse side of the ball, the Falcons can’t rush the passer at all and Darnold is just so much more effective when he’s not being knocked around or hurried. Horned helms.
Browns (+6.5) @ Steelers — Rematch from not so long ago. Steelers need the insurance run against Baltimore in the standings. Jameis was more positive Jamies than negative last time they played. Can he conjure up some wackiness? Will Almighty God himself intervene and prevent Jameis Winston from throwing pick sixes? Jameis has humbly requested it be so. All these things are in play in this game. The Steeler deef is really good but Jameis might be weirdly effective against it. Jameis has a Paul Pierce-type game where the herky-jerk just randomly destroys certain defenders. A lot of me is feeling gun-slingy and saying let’s ride with the points, but I think the Steelers become very Steeler-y this time of year. Serious business, football is to the Steelers. I see them running the ball well at home and eventually wearing down the Browns for a comfy December win. This is the kind of win that makes generations of fans of one team happy and generations of another team unhappy. And it’s Browns v Steelers, so guess which is which. Steelers do a statement W.
Packers (+3.5) @ Lions — If you started a team with the players missing from this game, it’d be a formidable squad. Lotsa guys getting some R&R. I supposed it’s to be expected. It’s Week 14 and we had the bye in Week 5. The season’s attrition is having this dual effect of taking little chunks out of the Lions’s strengths while also presenting us with greater and greater challenges as we move through the season. So far, the Lions have met the challenges before them, but it’s getting a little dicey. Reasonable arguments could be made that we were lucky to win on T-Bird. The good news for the Lions in this game is their offense still looks like it matches up against Green Bay’s fairly well, especially in the comfortable environs of Ford Field. Even with Decker out, we should be able to run, which should set up Goff nicely. From the Packers viewpoint, this season’s previous meeting had a weird and outlying result. They think they’re straight-up better than the Lions. Tougher, even. They have some pretty costly injuries on their side, too. Not as much as the Lions, but they’re still banged up. I just think Josh Jacobs finds a way to impose his will on a Lions front seven that is going to be the most depleted it’s been all season, being asked to punch above its weight for the umpteenth week in a row. I’m fully prepared for many different results in this game; defensive chess match, shootout, back-and-forth momentum swinger. But if I’m being honest I think this is gonna be a real slobberknocker. Two teams absolutely determined to run the ball first as a means to set up play actions and rollouts. Hard-hitting. I sadly think the Packers are laser-focused on this tilt, they hate the Lions a lot and the Lions are feeling a little too much pressure from the win streak, the weird schedule quirk they’re in right now, and the rapidly growing injury report. I love ’em (I feel completely compelled to say that when I pick against them), but I don’t see the Lions covering this spread. Gimme the Pack-pieces plus the points.
That’s how things look from here with regard to Week Fourteen. Not the most enticing slate of games I’ve ever wrote, but there’s a few real goodies out there this weekend on which I couldn’t decide how to wager, not the least of which is Chiefs v Chargers. I’m basking in the rare coolness that is the Lions having two Thursday Nighters in a row. The lack of stress on the following Sunday is a very nice part of your team playing on a Thursday, lemmetellya. Next week, much like the Lions, we’ll be back to the regular schedule. We here at MiWriTheLi.com hope you’re all having a nice start to the Christmas season out there. Getting all the decorations up and knocking some of the big stuff off the shopping list. Good times. That’s all this week, friends! Auf Wiedersehen!
