When the Lions would stink in the past, the T-Bird (Thanksgiving, keep up) Game often became The Season, mostly because we were often well out of the running by around Halloween. This game was often the only game most of NFL fandom even bothered to pay attention to. There was a short while where the Lions were weirdly good on weekday games, including on this beloved holiday classic, but that’s mostly gone by the wayside at least as far as T-Bird’s concerned. The Lions haven’t had it go their way on T-Bird in a while. Bad luck, good opponents, falling victim to overdue slumps; the reasons have been myriad and the results have been monotonous: deflating defeat. Even as our beloved team has turned very, very good, we can’t get a W on Thanksgiving lately. The last time was 2016. It was a 16-13 win over Minnesota in which a late pick from Sam Bradford helped seal the Detroit W. “Sam Bradford was prominently involved” is an admittedly esoteric but kinda funny expression for “this happened quite a long time ago”.
This year’s Thanksgiving feast is featured around the game against the Bears, hated nearly as much as the Packers. I am, if I’m keeping it a buck, somewhat concerned with this game. I’m almost certain that we’re gonna get the Bears’s best effort. Their new O.C. seems to be working out well for them and I’d expect a large jump to be made each week in these first few under what Caleb Williams seems to allude to as refreshing tutelage. And the Lions are banged up, man. It’s the same story every week but that’s because the facts never change. Injuries are really stacking up on the Lions sideline. And though they’ve met every challenge, part of your brain can’t help but wonder how many more straws the camel’s back can take. The Lions are resilient, no doubt. But there are key position groups that absolutely need to stay healthy the remainder of the season if we are to secure that critical 1-seed and its bye. O-Line and RBs come to mind first, but that’s just a flinch reaction. The secondary looked a lot more porous without Terrion Arnold. Linebackers are already about as thin as they can get. Almost everywhere, really. If we’re being honest, there’s not a lot more hits we can take when it comes to losing personnel. That’s a (to me) unexpectedly difficult part of having what would be — on paper and fully healthy — the best team. Nobody roots for injuries, so when a potential dream season seems like it may be headed down a more randomizing road of attrition because of player health reasons, you feel like you could find yourself the victim of large-scale bad luck again. For more than two full seasons now, it’s felt like the Lions were the true masters of their fate and were out from under the thumb of awful luck. With this slow trickle of pretty large injuries and the nearly-as-relentless win streak from Philly, that’s looking less like a certainty these days.
But all those ills can at least be temporarily cured by a decisive T-Bird W over the gosh darn Bears. We’re huge favorites. That soothes the anxiety a little bit, because Vegas doesn’t throw around double-digit lines like they’re candy. They must know at least a little something positive about the Lions and how they match up against the Midways. But there’s plenty of arguments to be made for the Bears. There’s the aforementioned huge line. There’s the aforementioned fact that they look like they’re finally starting to gel a little bit under their new O Coordinator. Their “rookies” are only rookies in the nominal sense now — they’ve played about 3/4 of a season they have a decent feeling of how it goes. Their playoff hopes are mostly dashed, so they’ll have an added incentive to play spoiler against a Lions team and fanbase that (as far as I can tell from Twitter) Chicago deems too cocky. And it bears reiterating: the Lions are in-jured. Key guys all over the place. Maybe our backups step up big. It’s not an outlandish idea. Every single guy on our 53 or even 45-man is a terrific football player. But there are degrees and probabilities and all that other math riif-raff that we here at MiWriTheLi.com rely on “feel” to understand. For example, if Sione Viaki is playing 90% of defensive snaps at safety, the odds of a catastrophically busted coverage deep on 1-3 plays isn’t an unreasonable expectation. Decker’s gonna be out on T-Bird. Will the O-Line completely fall apart all game? Of course not. But will there be a critical 3rd-and-7 late in the 3rd quarter where the Bears’s blitz now has a 15% greater chance of getting home? Maybe. It’s a maybes game, and there aren’t as many maybes in the Lions favor as there were a few weeks ago. But whatever. It’s T-Bird time, let’s pick ’em.
T-BIRD WEEK (THIRTEEN) PICKS: SIDES RANKED ARE STUFFING, MAC ‘N’ CHEE, MASHED w/ GRAVY OVER ALL, CRAN JELLO, CORN AND GREENIE BEANY CASS. THE PROPER WAY TO EAT ‘EM IS TO MIX ALL OF IT INTO ONE HOMOGENOUS PILE AND THEN JUST HACK IT ONE FORKFUL AT A TIME
Last Week: 3-1-1, Season: 33-27-1, Lifetime: 88-56-4
Giants (+3.5) @ Cowboys — The Cowboys aren’t a squad that is exactly overflowing with integrity and character. They’re frontrunners and loudmouths and when things get tough they tuck tail really quickly. Having said all that, this is T-Bird. Dallas and Detroit feel very defensive about winning at home on this day. It almost becomes oddly personal. I like Cooper Rush to etch lightly pencil his name into Cowboys lore with a great T-Bird performance. How bout ’em.
Dolphins (+3.5) @ Packers — Tua is on a serious heater, but this is a mean and hard-hitting defense looking to re-establish Lambeau as a place to feared since the Lions came in and tore the place down in the rain. I think Tua’s a good bet to throw a touchie, but this will be the Packers turning in a “hey, the NFC isn’t just Detroit and the Eagles”-type of reminder game. Cha-heeeeese.
Chargers (-1.5) @ Falcons — When you live in Michigan, you hear things. A lot of them usually have to do with the auto industry. Maybe a certain But for the last decade or so, auto industry tidbits were rivaled in number by Harbaugh rumblings. He was everywhere. It’s made me feel like I can pick his teams accurately. How I knew to short ’em last week. Not this week. They’re back in business and Harbaugh will take special exception if his team loses to an opposing team QB’d by Kirk Cousins. Chargers.
Eagles (+3) @ Ravens — Bird Battle! Avian Fight! The Owls of Ga’Hoole! Nothing like a good hollow-bones fight. This doesn’t look like the easiest game to pick on the board but I’m taking the team that’s hotter, the team that still weirdly feels like they have “something to prove”-type chip on their collective shoulder. It’s an Eagles pick. Road weirdness.
Bears (+10) @ Lions — As my pick history will show you, I’m not even a little afraid to pick against the Lions if I think the line’s too high. Well, that’s how I feel here. I’m actually a little nervous about coming away from this game with a good result. To win by 10?! That would really be surprising to me, frankly. The Bears are not light years away from being good. They’re talented. I think the Lions can get it done but they’re gonna need nearly 4 quarters of pretty good football to do so. I think the Bears can keep pace today. Bears keep it interesting.
That’ll take care of the T-Bird Preview! All of us here at the site wish you a sincere and joyful Happy Thanksgiving! Happy T-Bird! Hope you have an awesome time watching the parade, watching the game(s), chowing down, spending cheerful time full of love with the people you care about the most. This is the beginning of the happiest time of year. Start it off on a great note! Much love and Auf Wiedersehen!
