I try really hard to not be, as all-time underrated Detroit sports radio personality Sean Baligian used to put it, a “slappy”. I love the Lions, but I try hard to ensure that I’m never wearing the proverbial blinders when it comes to looking at them objectively. I’ll fully admit it’s a somewhat arrogant, elitist, and ultimately fruitless aim. Only a fool could think he has some magical ability to remain totally devoid of bias over three decades of rooting for a team. But I still try. Because true objectivity in this purpose is, by definition, the surest way to see the truth(s) behind the events and results that transpire over a pro football season. Sometimes this quest for clarity backfires; you don’t want to “fool” yourself into believing your team is unquestionably excellent so you look too hard for chinks in the armor. You look so hard you begin to fabricate ones that aren’t really there. Such was the case last week. Here are the Lions, smack-dab in the middle of one of the franchise’s all-time heaters, and I’m putting big stock into some nebulous, ephemeral, “up/down theory”-based voodoo nonsense. I picked Minnesota to not only beat my team but to cover the spread because I thought the Lions had a peak of sorts against Dallas the week prior. That invisible, ultimately non-existent peak that I was so worried about coupled with the injury to Hutchy just gave me the inescapable feeling that we were in line for a minor setback/let-down in Week Seven. The first ten minutes of the game seemed like a thorough validation of these feelings. The offense played with some trepidation. That early fake punt was wildly ill-advised and executed about as poorly as a fake punt can be. They gave up a monstrous touchdown run to (solid, but aging re-tread) Aaron Jones. I saw the first ten minutes of the game and I was like, “Dammit, I wish I wasn’t so right.” I’m embarrassed to even type that, sitting here with nobody but my dog. That’s such an embarrassing thing to write I’m feeling dumb in front of my dog. Weird feeling. No other human beings around at all, but I’m so profoundly embarrassed I feel like apologizing to my dog. I’m not that bright. Again, thinking you’re too clever to believe your team can exceed your own expectations is arrogant and elitist. If I ever say otherwise I’m just lying to make myself feel better. Thankfully, the Lions proved me so, so wrong. With a gutsy, full-heart performance on the road in front of a frenzied crowd and against a very soild Vikings team, the Leos rattled off an excellent comeback (two comebacks, technically) win and proved they have more heart and guts and “grit” (I’m not denying the word, just getting a little tired of it) than all but the slappiest slappies thought they had in the tank. They proved me dead wrong. I didn’t think they had the kind of guts it took to win that game on Sunday and I was dead wrong. What a mentally tough group. Couldn’t be prouder, or happier to be wrong. That second quarter was as good as I’ve ever seen a Detroit Lions team play, epitomized by Jah Gibbsy’s thus-far career best touchdown run. It’s difficult to articulate just how excellent the offense has been these past few weeks. You hate to resort to clichés, but clichés don’t become what they are if they’re inherently false. Here it is: the Lion offense actually plays like they’re perceiving the opposing defense moving in slow motion. The defense also played a great part in the victory in Minny-Ap. Brian Branch looks like he’s taken the difficult leap from pretty good to excellent; our safety tandem is among the best in football. Terrion Arnold seems to be getting over the handsy-ness that was a bit of an early-season concern. The front seven is doing a good job adjusting to the more dynamic schemes they’re having to deploy in the absence of Hutchy. In short: it’s high times in Lion Land. But with those high times come high expectations, especially line-wise. Speaking of which…
WEEK EIGHT PICKS: MAYBE GONNA BE THE ONE THAT SAVES ME
Last Week: 2-3-0, Season: 20-15-0, Lifetime: 75-45-3
I wanna begin with the note that this week feels particularly tough to pick. Vegas has the teams figured out and has the bettors figured out too. Now they’re playing “let’s have the bets fall 50/50” chess. I fear their intelligence at this, so I’m wary of making these picks. But the picks must be made. Let’s hit it.
Falcons (-1.5) @ Buccaneers — Simply put, I don’t know how the Bucs move the ball very well without their top two receivers. Faithful readers will know I generally have a favorable view of Baker Mayfield, but you don’t win a gunfight without bullets to fire. Or musket balls, as a Buccaneer would presumably use. On 5 days rest. Tampa got manhandled last week and I like them to bounce back. This is an up/downer combined with a “sometimes one team is too injured to put forth anything better than a B-“-type pick. It’s Halloweekend and a good time to pick birds of prey, which carry a Halloween vibe. Falcons.
Bears (-1.5) @ Washington — I can’t pick Marcus Mariota against this Chicago deef. And without the magic of Daniels — which I didn’t think would translate into actual wins the way it has — I don’t see Washington keeping their positive momentum going. Late money came down on Washington, so maybe Daniels actually plays this game, but even a bruised rib is going to effect a guy’s effectiveness. Bears are part of the best division in the game and they know games like these are must-wins if they want to achieve their goals. Plus, homecoming game for Caleb against a weak deef. Daaaa Bears. That’s from something.
Colts (+4) @ Texans — I will get a Texans pick right if it kills me (and my season’s picks record). I don’t have much else to say. I know Collins is still out for Houston, and on the Colt side Tone Richardson seems way overdue for a good game, but I’m liking some Texan bounce-back here the same way I’m liking it for the Falcons. I will get a Texans pick right. Gimme the Texans, the bastards.
Eagles (+2.5) @ Bengals — A lot of late, presumably sharp, action on Cincy. I’m not so sure. I know Philly’s had it’s trouble in pass deef, but they have coaches. It’s been a couple of weeks since their last true debacle. Maybe the ship’s been righted. I also favor the team that can run the ball better. I foresee another big game from Saquon, stymying Joey B and keeping the Bengaboys off the field. In the near future I’ll figure out a more “clever” (heavy quotes on that boy) way to call the Bengals the “Bengaboys” in an homage to the two-hit wonder Dutch Europop group Vengaboys. But for now I believe the Bengabus will be stalled by a bunch of cheese and shredded steak clogging up the intake. Gimme the Birds.
Titans (+12.5) @ Lions — This line started the week at a clean dozen, moved to 11.5, then sharp action (though maybe it’s late public action with how popular the Lions are getting these days) pushed it up to 12.5. I’m compelled to pick this game because I always pick the Lions game, but make no mistake: I’m not plopping any real cheddar down on this one. I can’t. I’m much, much too uncertain and if there’s one bedrock principle I have in football gambling it’s “don’t be a moron because you feel like you have to”. So yeah, I’d call this a stayaway, but if in some awful scenario I was coerced into picking this game, I’d go with the team that’s absolutely firing on all cylinders and has well-founded, champion-level confidence over the team who’s not great anywhere (decent on the D-Line) and whose worst player is their QB. Gimme those Leos! And if you actually bet on this game, sincere congratulations on being a much braver person than I. 12.5 is a greasy, beefy line. I will say this: if any team out there this year can get it done, it’s these Lions. They have the heart and guts to win the close ones. But they also have the focus and will to blow out opponents that are clearly inferior. Last year they had a bit of “play to the level of your opponent” to them. But I think they’ve grown past that. I think they’re in that flow state where they don’t even view their opponents as human beings, just obstacles to move past and plow through. Like I said, high times.
That’s gonna do it for Week Eight coverage and picks! I haven’t said “thank you” for reading in a while; all of us here at MiWriTheLi.com are very, very grateful for our fantastic readership. We love bringing you these well-measured (if way too introspective) takes, and we really love bringing you the picks, middling results so far this season aside. Have yourselves an excellent final Sunday in October. It’s a shame the best month of the year flies by so freaking fast, but honestly there are few things more fun as an adult than handing out candy to little kids on Halloween. It’s a priceless capper to the early autumn and a perfect table setter for the best two-month stretch of the year: ThanksGhristmasYearsEve. Have a wonderful week, everyone! Enjoy the games and Auf Wiedersehen!
