There are some doozies this week. Some real doozerinos. We’ll get to the picks. Not much else; once again, very little time to spend doing anything resembling a deep-dive. What I will touch on briefly is how the Lions single-handedly redefined the term “Pyrrhic victory” during their absolute stomping of the Cowboys down in Dallas. A lot of us figured the Lions would have to deal with some serious injuries this year; we’ve been luckier than average for the past several seasons and regression to the mean and blah blah blah and all that crap. But Ragnow tore a pec, Barnes was lost for the season, and we still willingly give a roster spot (every week!) to Kalif Raymond. Surely that would appease the injury gods. Or so we all thought. Then Hutchy snapped his leg bones like matchsticks. I think it was 2 leg bones, each with Latin names that would make me sound much smarter if I could remember them. But basically all his leg bones in that particular leg region. Gut-punch losses are one thing. I vividly remember last year’s agonizing failure against San Fran. Hell, I still remember our NFC Champ Game shellacking at the hands of the Redskins. Those kind of losses really suck to see live, and they’re awful to remember. But a catastrophic injury to a franchise pillar, a stalwart and All-Pro caliber player, and a guy who by all accounts is a tremendous force for positivity and good off the field — I’ve now learned that seeing that kind of injury happen sucks much worse. I mean, we completely and thoroughly whooped Dallas’s ass. Not only exorcised some demons but did so in a fashion that just makes you smile. But that tremendous victory suddenly became the silver lining of a very dark cloud. Hutchy being gone is a huge blow to our Super Bowl chances. His havoc-wreaking presence made almost everyone else’s job easier. He’d occupy an additional blocker, opening things up for the other D-Linemen. He was actually underrated in his play against the run, filling gaps and letting the LBs fly like kamikaze hawks. Even when the opposing O-Line threw the kitchen sink at him and he didn’t get home, he still altered the pocket shape and harassed their QB, making things much less stressful on the secondary. The Lions go as their lines go, and we just lost the hardest-charging piston (not capitalized because I wouldn’t disrespect Hutch by comparing him to a Piston) in the engine that makes our whole defense go. When Hutch was in good form, which he had been for almost every single snap this season, our defense was proactive. It completely dictated how the plays went for every drive they lined up against. That might still be the case some of the time, but not to the degree to which we’ve become accustomed. Now we’re a defense that still has the capability to make great plays, but we’re no longer the conductors by default. We’re gonna have to be fast reactors; quick-twitch firefighters. The Lions have the horses to accomplish this shift, but it’s gonna be a shift. The players are going to have to adjust, and (perhaps more crucially) so is Aaron Glenn. Let’s put it in immediately practical terms: Sam Darnold would’ve had a really difficult time hitting Justin Jefferson for anything longer than 15 yards this week if Hutch was playing. But now? There’s a 20% chance that on a few snaps, Darnold will have an absolutely pristine pocket and plenty of time to wait for Jefferson to create big separation way down the field. These little changes in probabilities are what ultimately make the difference in games contested by two good teams. In a way, it’s good we’re playing the Vikes in our first game post-injury. Darnold-to-Jefferson is likely the most dangerous hookup we’ll face this season, so it’s our most rigorous litmus test on whether or not we can retain our champion-caliber play on that side of the ball. While that worries me a little when I think about this game, I’m also slightly concerned with how solid the Vikings have been against the run. To say we need the run game to be potent is a huge understatement. Brian Flores is licking his chops to prove himself against everyone’s darling of the week Ben Johnson. And he knows that if he can keep us in 3rd-and-longs, play-action goes out the window and Goff — as much as he’s improved against pressure over the course of his career — is still just not quite as effective when he’s under truly heavy duress. This is a great prove-it week. All we can do is wait and see how it goes. I’ll admit I’m not feeling ultra-confident, especially when factoring in the up/down theory. With that in mind…
WEEK SEVEN PICKS: BULLET THE HONOLULU BLUE SKY
Last Week: 4-1-0, Season: 18-12-0, Lifetime: 73-42-3
Texans (+3) @ Packers — I’m resigned to the fact that I’ll never get a Texans pick correct, so call this a double-reverse jinx win-win. I’m punting the points and taking the Packers, and if I’m wrong, then it’s likely a Lions W will ensure a little respite from the hard-charging Cheeseheads and create a little separation in the super-tight North.
Seahawks (+3) @ Falcons — I think the Seahawk’s best is better than the Falcons’s. And I think the Hawks have finally recovered from the physical toll their trip to Detroit took on them. Hawkies. Boeing.
Eagles (-3) @ Giants — The Giants somehow feel slightly dangerous to pick against as a home dog, but why not put a little chedd on Saquon having himself a game similar to his brilliant Brazilian opener? The Eagles just have to be better than what we’ve been seeing lately. Gimme Birds.
Chiefs (+1.5) @ Niners — If I’m getting points with Patrick Mahomes as QB, generally I’m taking that. But this feels like it needs a zig-zag. The Niners haven’t “announced” themselves yet this season, and the “has Kyle Shanahan finally gotten the proverbial monkey off his back?” feels like too good a narrative not to hear over and over again starting Monday. I’m either repeating an utterly bone-headed mistake that I swore last season I’d never repeat, or I’m ahead of the sharps. Gimme Saint Frank.
Lions (+1.5) @ Vikings — I’m reluctantly, and with a near-broken heart, picking the Vikings. See above for details.
That’ll do it for Week Seven and the picks therein. I still need some room to fully contemplate the awfulness that is the Hutchy injury. Please respect the sensitivity of the Lions fan(s) in your life during this difficult time. Eventually we’ll come around and convince ourselves that either Brad Holmes or Dan Campbell can get our team through this dark time with some GM wizardry or coaching mega-wizardry. One thing we can hang our collective hat on is the fact that this team has it within them to find an even higher gear of focus and intensity. Maybe that’ll be enough. Let’s hope. For now, Auf Wiedersehen!
