Regular Season: 55-31-3
Playoffs: 7-5-0
There are two mostly defunct vernaculars being used in the same column title. Roman numerals, obviously. But I think the world would be a better place if we brought those back a little more often. They’re only mildly arcane and esoteric, people’d get used to ’em. And they’re fun. The other word, conjecturae, is Latin for “guesses”. Devoted readers, all several of them, will note that I usually title my Friday/Saturday column with words like “preview” or “prediction”. I realized as I planned this column that those words were subconsciously in my brain due to a degree of confidence that informed my predictions in the regular season. Most of that reasoning found its way to fortunate results. Peep the reg seas record. Self-backpat-worthy. Not a crazy enthusiastic pat, but one that lets you know yourself is there. A nice pat. I’m only managing to break even-ish in the playoffs, but hey, the playoffs are harder. Just ask the teams that make the playoffs. Point is: the trend continues apace with the postseason and the narrowing of the field, and now we’re at the last game of the season and it’s the least confident I’ve felt picking any game this season. I suppose that’s fitting. And in an abstract way, (if my feelings aren’t uncommon) good for the league. My lack of feel for this game, really not knowing what to anticipate, at times feeling utterly bewildered: it all makes it feel more exciting. But simultaneously, less willing to lay down actual cheddar on some action.
Speaking of action, let’s talk about the main bet first. At press time early morning Saturday, we’ve settled into a line of Niners -2. If I’m being honest, my first reaction when I heard the Niners were favored was one of mild surprise. The Chiefs have won two straight roadies, as underdogs. And the Niners have only eked out two straight (not covering their spreads in either case) improbable comeback wins at home. Not only that, but the Chiefs have Pat Mahomes. The only reason I’m above .500 in playoff picks is because I finally realized the folly of consistently betting against Mahomes, but epecially ever betting against underdog Mahomes. The Niners might be more well-rounded on offense. Niner receivers seems like they’re a lot better than their Chief counterparts, but one group had Purdy throwing to it and the other has Pat Mahomes. Football doesn’t often mimic basketball, but I subscribe pretty consistently to the theory that the team with the best guy will win the game more often. Mahomes is the best player in this game. The only playoff games like this he’s lost in his career — to Brady his rookie year, Brady in the Supe, possibly concussed against Burrow — is when the other QB straight outplayed him AND his defense didn’t play very well in the clutch. I don’t see him having a worser game than Purdy. Purdy might have a good game, but I just don’t think he has the capability to drastically outplay Mahomes. If I’m wrong, then good on ya Brock Purdy because that would be a truly historic feat.
This quarterback disparity is partially fed by my next point: KC might actually have a better defense, too! Saint Frankie’s got a bunch of big names (and legitimate talent behind those names, to be sure), but what has that gotten them in this playoff? Huge early deficits against two separate teams who they were, frankly, a bit lucky to come back against. If they don’t play thoroughly excellent defensive game from wire to wire, they’re in big trouble. KC can’t score instantly like they did when they had Cheetah, but they can still score. Mahomes has unmatched presence and Mahomes-ness on the biggest stage, such that he can will his receivers to raise their level of play and match the moment. That I’ve only now just mentioned the two best tight ends in the game (but the slightly better one on KC) not only underscores how terrific this game has the potential to be, but again points to there being more pressure on the Niners to play a near-perfect game. All the Chiefs have to do, in my mind, is avoid playing a bad game.
I drew a loose comparison between football and basketball a second ago. I’m going again: Pat Mahomes & his core corps of Chiefs have a ’90s Bulls feel to them. Most of the time it looked very pretty and deceivingly effortless, but on the occasions when it didn’t, like a Knicks or Pacers series or something, they found a way to get it done ugly. These guys feel like that type of team to me; a team that never cowers and somehow just always figures out a way to end up with more points. I might be completely wrong about this. Shanny and the Niners, I’ll acknowledge, have the capacity to go Super Saiyan and lay a whooping like the Seahawks did Peyt’s Broncos in our most recent Super Bowl blowout. But I think as much as those Niners are ready for how winning this game could change all of their lives, the Chiefs are more ready for the game by understanding how it adds another crucial layer to their legacy as all-timers.
Legacy hangs in the balance of the result here. Not unusual for a Supe, but especially so in this one for the Chiefs. A loss in this game would put them at .500 in Supes and .500 against the Niners specifically. They’ll be remembered as fierce competitors to their pluckier equals. But if they win, they’re the dominant team that defines the post-Brady era AND the guys who always came through when they were counted out. I think as much as I like Shanahan to have his guys in the moment, I like Reid better to have his guys in the moment and caaallllm. People don’t often acknowledge the whooping they got at the hands of the Bucs in Brady’s final Supe. I think they know how quickly it can go awry and how awful that feels. Learning that lesson helped them in ways that just haven’t seemed to sink in for the Niners yet. They still look like they drift for a series or two (or a quarter). Not the Chiefs. That’s why I make the Chiefs my pick plus a couple points.
Prop Bets AKA Ooof There Goes That Cash
Coin Toss: Heads (-105) — As a wee lad, a very close friend once told me about watching an NFL Films segment that asked a bunch of classic old bros like Too-Tall Jones, Butkus, Merlin Olsen et al., “What do you prefer to call?” And their answers were not only mostly “heads” but they reacted almost incredulously to the question. As if they were flabbergasted that tails was even a viable option to be considered. Since hearing about this second-hand, and like 99% for that reason by itself, I’m a heads guy. I reserve the 1% for “tails never fails”, which I think is trite and cliché and stupid. “Tails never fails” people can go for an extended head soak, imo.
National Anthem Length in Seconds: over 90 (+102) — If you don’t know, it’s Reba McEntire. Unless she does some rollicking, high-tempo version with a fair amount of yee-haw energy, I can’t see how this lasts less than a minute and a half. I still feel like we’re in a place where this thing gets taken kinda seriously, solemnly and therefore time-consumingly. Maybe Reba’ll buck that trend, cuz she’s earned that kind of goodwill. But she’s also country and that brings a sincere reverence for these overt displays of patriotism. Plus, factor in the flyover: if she’s doing something real high-tempo, the plane engine roars will block out like 8 measures of music. But if she’s going slower they just come in and put the finishing flourish on one long, crescendoing final note.
Will Usher debut a new song: No (+100) I don’t know. Just play the hits, man. This is the Super Bowl halftime show we’re not here to learn a new one or be like, “Yeah, that was kinda cool. I will purchase that.” Plus, I think you factor in artist ego a bit here. If he’s debuting new stuff, it’s like he needs the show for his own promotion. Not cool, feels an iota desperate. If he just selects from his large catalog of hits and has enough that he can even leave some hits out (which he does), then he’s a legend who can’t even fit all his hits into the Supe halftime show. Come on.
Usher first song performed: DJ Got Us Falling In Love (+500) — “Yeah!” is an obvious favorite, but this song gets way better odds AND it has a specific lyric about it being a particular night of your life, and it’s him solo. If he comes out with “Yeah!” it will feel incomplete if Luda and Lil’ Jon don’t also come out, and to do that at the very first song seems premature. Save that haymaker for once the crowd’s softened up. Same goes for “OMG”/Biebs and “My Boo”/Alicia Keys. “DJ” has “Yeah”-esque crowd-pleasing energy but Usher can pull it off solo. A perfect amuse-bouche. Or amuse-oreille, I suppose.
Pass Yds H2H: Purdy (+15.5) — This is a slight hedge against the rationale that informed my game bet, but it’s not out of the question for both to come true. Especially if you think Pacheco has the potential to go nuts and carry a lot of the KC offensive load, as I do. It’s no secret that Mahomes and Reid have changed the attack plan since the receiving corp has gotten a little worse. Shorter throws, every year, no exception. Meanwhile, Purdy has dudes everywhere to whom he can dump it off and assume it’s going for 20. Not only do I think that KC will mostly shut down the SF run game, but I think they’ll get up early and so Brock will be forced to do a fair amount of passing. I think it’s a dunk that he ends up with more yards. But probably not the W.
That’s it for the Super Bowl Guess-o-Rama and, by gosh, that’s it for the football season! Oh no! Bittersweet. Gonna miss football, but I usually get some reading done and get in better shape in the late Winter/early Spring. I’ll be back with decent regularity to keep up with our beloved Lions and see what the tea leaves seem to be saying vis-à-vis the draft (held this year IN DETROIT, might do a field report) and the start of a new league year. Next year’s our year, so it’s prudent to be well-prepared for it. Thank you so much for reading all season long. It was a true pleasure to write. What a great season. I hope you had fun and have an excellent Super Bowl-watching experience. Have fun! Auf Wiedersehen!
