Regular Season: 55-31-3
Playoffs: 3-3-0
Back in the day, people listened to radio. Nowadays people might meander into an area where radio is within earshot, or their phone hasn’t synced with their car yet. That’s about it. But I swear it’s true that back in the day people used to listen to the radio a lot. Like, to hear songs and people talking. One fun thing about radio was you’d hear these voices for such a long time and, at least pre-internet, you didn’t often get a chance to see what these folks looked like. Eventually, if you did find the face that matched the voice to which you’d been listening, it was weird! Always weird. The voice you knew was familiar but because the face wasn’t familiar, it’s a jarring experience hearing the familiar voice come from the unfamiliar face.
I ruminated this week about what would feel weirder: the radio experience of hearing voice first, or an experience where you’d recognize a person by appearance but didn’t hear them speak for years and years? Perhaps whatever context you’d have to imagine to make the latter plausible makes it seems weirder, but I bet both scenarios would evoke similar weirdness when the rubber meets the road. I’m reminded of that one I Think You Should Leave sketch where Tim hires a doppelgänger of his coworker to take giant dumps so everyone in the office would think this particular coworker takes giant dumps. At the end of the sketch Tim’s character is taken aback because he’d never heard the doppelgänger speak before and his voice was weird. I’m not saying I believe the sketch show to be an accurate reflection of reality, but it’s something to think about. Something to think about? That doesn’t mean anything. Everything is something to think about. Let’s move on.
That awful introduction was my very ham-fisted way of saying appearances — nay, obvious superficialities — can be deceiving. And the particular superficiality that I think may be deceptive is the score of the Lions’s triumph over the Buccaneers earlier this season. The final score was 20-6. The 14-point difference and low output from the Bucs would lead you to believe the Lions were firmly in control of the game and dominated on defense. And that’s kinda true. Kinda. We gained solid control late but it was obviously never a blowout. The Bucs left a lot of meat on the bone in that game. Their 6 points were due more to their bad execution that day more than anything heroic done by the Lions. The Bucs just failed to execute. There were several wide open, endzone-bound receivers just badly overthrown or overlooked by Baker Mayfield. Certainly there were two overthrows, and maybe like 5 or 6 combined overthrows/didn’t-look-ats. If two of those hit, that’s the margin of victory. I’m not saying the Lions didn’t earn their win, but that game was so, so much closer than 20-6 indicates. And we’ve got some other things working against us this week.
The first thing that comes to mind is Ceej Gar-Jo. Why, why, WHY, in the name of Pete why would he talk shit about Baker Mayfield to the press in the week leading up to the game? What possible good comes out of talking shit about a person before the game? None. What possible bad comes out of talking shit about a person before the game? Potentially an incalculable amount. Baker Mayfield is a proud dude. And not a terrible quarterback. With some very solid receivers. AND HE’S NOT TALL relative to his colleagues and competitors. That’s something. The height thing. Take it from a dude who was very short until age 17: short people perform better when they feel slighted. This was a bad move by Ceej. And he’s beefing down! We’re the favorites! Just a bad move. I’m not saying it’s gonna happen, or that it’s even likely, but it’s a fact that Baker is capable of going mildly bananas to the tune of something like 22-27, 360, 3 TDs. And I think this outcome is more likely the more pissed off him and his teammates are.
And if our defense has a bad day or Baker has a good day or both occur simultaneously we might find ourselves in serious trouble. The Tampa Bay defense is no joke, especially on that D-Line. One positive is that we’re playing them with a much healthier roster than we did last time. I don’t see our offense being stymied too much unless they’re defense feeds off of unexpected Baker excellence. If they get off to a hot start and play complementary football this could be a real barn-burner.
But I don’t think they will. I think the Lions are slightly better and are beginning to peak. Their focus and execution is extremely sharp and the energy they’ll get from the superlatively raucous crowd should help carry the day. That win last week was a little more than just the 3-seed beating the 6. The Rams were playing well coming in, they played very well that night. But the Lions played well too, never quit and took advantage of their breaks. It turned out to be enough. I’m not sure if the Bucs are as good as the Rams. I’m reasonably certain they’re not far better. The teams are similarly constructed, but to me it feels like the Bucs might be the poorer man’s version. Let’s take those Leos!
THE REST OF THE GAMES ON THE BEST FOOTBALL WEEKEND OF THE YEAR
Texans (+9.5) @ Ravens — This game, as is the case with most of the games this week, is difficult to pick. I’ve lost and won picking both of these teams this year. One game I won was very early in the season when I picked the Ravens to cover against the Texans. I admittedly haven’t seen many of their plays beyond the highlights. Stroud appears completely unflappable so far this season. But I’ve seen him flapped before. Twice. Against Michigan. He can be flapped. I think this Ravens team’s makeup, being loaded with hungry veterans, is too much for the Texans. I see Baltimore wanting to exorcise their recent playoff troubles and stomp these Houston bros. Gimme the Ravens to cover the huge spread.
Packers (+10) @ Niners — I could copy and paste most of the preceding paragraph into this one and call it good. But something about the Packers is making me weary. Maybe it’s just my brain’s conditioning after so many consecutive years of seeing the Packers be, at worst, really solid. The NFC North should be quite competitive for the foreseeable future. Having said all that, I can’t pick against Shanny and the Niners with an extra week of rest and prep. They’re too solid from top to bottom. I think they can shut down most of what Green Bay does well, and the vice/versa of that doesn’t hold water. Niners win huge but the Packers are rightfully excited about the future again.
Chiefs (+2.5) @ Bills — Very excited that this game is the capper, I don’t think I could handle the Lions being a night game again. The hours leading up to it were an anxiety minefield. As for this tilt, hoooooo boy. What a game this should be. I only picked against Mahomes & Co once this year, opening weekend. It hit! But it was terrifying. The Chiefs are a better defensive team, especially with how many injuries the Bills have sustained. Allen has been borderline reckless at times this season. Kelce might have been saving up his fastballs for the playoff run. Rashee Rice looks to be coming on. A lot of things are lining up nice for the Chiefs here. And they’re getting points! But the Bills are our Curse of Lake Erie brethren, and I think the sun is shining on us. Sometimes you gotta pick against your instincts. Instincts say Chiefs but I’m going Bills. Not a full Costanza, which is opposite for opposite’s sake, but a lesser degree and more personal zag-zig. This is a Captain James Tiberius Kirk pick, not a Commander Spock pick. I think things finally line up for Josh Allen and the Bills to get the 3-point win against the Chiefs.
So that wraps up the picks for the divisional round. I’ll tell you what I’m hoping for: a chance to write about the Lions and their prospects in the NFC Championship game which they’d play at home against the Packers. That’s what I’m hoping for. Also, fun games on the AFC side. Let’s hope these things happen. Auf Wiedersehen!
