What an interesting week. Even in comparison to the very interesting times in which we generally live, brothers and sisters and everyone, this was a week. Nice but weird to know that we can rely on football to keep chugging along. Nice, because football rules and it’s fun. Weird, because sometimes one can feel like a bit of a chump for being so into the superficial appeasement of panem et circenses. But whaddyagonnado? “Buck the system”? Best of luck with that, Neo. This blog ain’t about our innumerable and profound societal ills or the folly writ large of exalting humanity above its animalistic tribalism. You can watch Last Week Tonight or, y’know, the news for those particular brands of bummers. This here’s about the Lions and the NFL. Let’s dive right in! Don’t obsess about sad shit, you only get to be alive once. And football doesn’t even have that long a season. Give yourself a weekly break for some football (if you read the words “some football” and you thought about Hank Williams Jr.’s voice, you’re in the proper mindset). Let’s delve into the intricacies of this week’s action.
LIONS v. RAVENS — CATS EAT BIRDS, EVEN THE SCARY ONES
This game has been presumptively challenging for the Lions even before the scheduled date was released. The Ravens are tough and (mostly) well-coached. They play with a lot of confident, imposing physicality. They execute very well on special teams. The Lions have largely been built, whether by accident or on purpose, in the Ravens’s image. The offenses aren’t the same, but that’s because our respective quarterbacks’s skill sets are almost diametrically opposed. Other than that we’re remarkably similar. These similarities, in addition to a few other trends, make me very anxious about the Lions and their chances to extend their winning streak to five.
One thing that makes me nervous is the point spread. I always, always assume Vegas (the synecdoche for the gambling industry, not the Raiders) knows many things I do not. The line (Lions +3) isn’t enormous, but big enough to give me pause. Especially when I consider that we’re into the middle third of the season and the handicappers have stuff a little more figured out. Another thing I’m nervous about is the general notion of regression to the mean (and, in a similar vein, the up/down theory). The Lions are riding high, man. Not only are we basking in a four-game heater and one of our greatest starts since Boomers were literally baby Boomers, but the national media is finally starting to give us large amounts of ink, chat and airtime. That’s rare air for the Leos. Even when we fielded some decent and entertaining teams in the recent past, e.g. 2014’s Stafford/CalJo/Suh squad, we got very little run from the national media.
And let’s not forget what has been, even in the best circumstances, a persistent problem for our defense: a good running quarterback. We’re fast and vicious on defense, but that’s an obviously double-edged sword. Sometimes our D-Line will have fits of rushing way past the quarterback’s level. Jackson gets used a little differently than other runner-gunners like Hurts, Geno-no, Mahomes and/or Josh Allen. There are more designed runs for Jackson. I once heard an analyst — can’t remember who — say that preparing to defend against the Ravens was the NFL equivalent of preparing to defend against the Naval Academy. I think there’s some truth to that. They do things in a way that’s unique among their contemporaries. If you’re not sharp from the first whistle you risk quickly falling behind against a team built to hold onto leads.
As I’ve stated: nervous.
The other shoe eventually has to drop, right? A winning streak can’t last forever. Five games might seem like a no-big-deal streak to fans of some other franchises, but us beating the Ravens to get to that number and climb to 6-1 would be truly phenomenal. One of my closest friends — who know so much more about football than I do — was very, very bullish on the Lions from the get-go. He predicted a 10-1 start, which I thought was too optimistic. But thus far it appears his optimism was-founded and well-reasoned. The Lions are legit good. But here’s why even this correctly positive prognostication portends a tough day for our squad: even in this football genius’s rosy 10-1 prediction, he foresaw that the lone Lion loss was to be at the hands of Baltimore.
Some things appear to be to our advantage. We’re getting Jah Gibbs back, which opens up the playbook a little more. The lines are mostly healthy the coaches appear to be in a real rhythm. But Davey’s definitely out, and that brings some extra hurt in this presumable smashfest of a game. And Craigster’s probably not gonna be up for the heavy duty stuff either. So we’ll need another (at least) very good day from Goffee and the Goffense. They’re also coming back from London, but as I stated last week when I (correctly) picked them to win over there, they’re a sharp organization that knows how to navigate these things well. There’s a small chance that the long travel might subtly show its effects on a player or two very late in the game, but I don’t think the Ravens are gonna look sluggish or spent. They’ll be cutting and feisty like they almost always are.
For the record, I considered a huge amount of luck and jinx factors in this, but in the end I was left with once conclusion: if you seek luck’s favor at all, you have to bare your honest reasoning at luck’s feet and follow that reasoning to its conclusion, however unpleasant it may be. For all these reasons, I regrettably have to pick the Ravens to cover the spread.
WEEK SEVEN HANKIES PANKY (plural of hanky panky)
Bills (-8) @ Patriots — I think this core group of Bills relishes a good thrashing of the Pats, especially in Foxboro. And I don’t see how the Pats score enough to stay within 8 of an offense that I think will bounce back after that tough game against a bad-but-tough-and-hard-hitting Giants team. Bills will wax BillBel, Buffalo wins and puts pressure on the Dolphins to get a W in Philly to remain atop the AFC East.
Browns (-3) @ Colts — Even if Deshaun Watson doesn’t play, and it’s looking like he might, I don’t think Minshew can hang with this defense, and Jim Schwartz is hitting his stride (more on that later). My picks are similar this week. I envision defenses winning the day against QBs of all different statures. Feels like a good matchup day for defenses, especially this one. Gimme the Browns and let the points go.
Raiders (-2.5) @ Bears — This pick is based on what I think I understand about Davante Adams. He complained this week about a lack of touches, but his message was more than just “I want the ball more”. He said it in the context that it was his sincere belief that more targets for him gives the team the best chance to win each game and sets them up for more success long-term (if they can make it to long-term) because he can go up and fight for balls and he’s lethal after he’s caught it. He doesn’t strike me as the type to needlessly go all prima donna. And I think Hoyer or the rookie whose name I don’t remember will listen to his pleas and feed him the pigskin. And the Bears won’t be able to keep up, so the Raiders will cover.
Niners (-7) @ Vikings — Still riding with the Niners, who I think got outfoxed last week. Nobody on Kevin O’Connell’s staff, or Kevin O’Connell for that matter, are gonna do to Shanahan what Jim Schwartz did. Schwartz was Peter Principled when he got the job coaching here, but he’s perfect as a D Coordy. Niners are the right pick because I just can’t see Kirk putting up a lot of points against a defense like theirs.
Last week’s picks went 3-2-0. We lost taking the last two undefeated teams, who lost outright. It felt like slowly sinking into calm, clear waters on a very beautiful boat. Bad, but as okay as bad can be. Still, add that winning record to the season total and our picks are 21-8-0. Nothing to write home about, but nothing to sneeze at. Don’t you dare do either of those things with regard to my season record. This is your official warning.
Before I forget, this column is now brought to you by two sponsors: the fine folks at Disney+. You know about them. The Haunted Mansion. Give it ten minutes to see if it was as unnecessary and missable as a lot of people said. And also, there’s the rest of the library. Disney+. But we’re also brought you by big tobacco’s own R.J. Reynolds Company. Cigarettes, chew, dip; all from the North Carolinians who — get this — used to have Joe Camel! Those were good times. They used to have cigarette vending machines. Seems odd and kinda funny now. Anyway…
Back here for the Running Diary against the Ravens on Sunday! Let’s hope that the Lions prove me wrong, for then I shall doubt them… nevermore! Had to do it, sorry. Auf Wiedersehen!
