Science is a religion. It’s unlike the institutions that come to mind when you think of traditional, mainstream, organized religions, but it’s a religion. Its dogma isn’t primarily formed by faith-requiring narratives and what authoritative code it does have is comparatively truncated; the basic tenets are 1) the notions that questions can be answered with the right experiments and the scientific method, and 2) that established facts should constantly welcome intense peer-review and even skepticism. It’s easy to think of scientists as priests. They’ve used their acumen and cunning to access and understand knowledge the lay person doesn’t really know. They, too, frequently wear special little outfits. We trust their interpretation of data we don’t really understand. For example: I, like so many others, believe human industrialization has largely accelerated a modern-era warming of the planet. I’ve never conducted an experiment on air composure in my life. I have no idea if there’s more CO2 in the air than there was 60 years ago. Even if I watched a person step-by-step perform an experiment and show me verifying results, even if they were simultaneously explaining their methodology in the context of chemistry facts I’d still be kinda clueless. So it does require some faith.
What on Earth does this have to do with the NFL’s Week Two and the illustrious Detroit Lions game versus the Seahawks? I wanted to illustrate how something not often thought of as a religion can be fairly religion-y. I wanted to do this because I believe luck is a religion. Specifically, a religion that people haven’t really figured out yet because, unlike modern fair-minded deities and scientific fact, luck favors and curses people differently in ways that seem unfair, dumb and/or downright mean. Some old people have bad luck with computers. Some really terrific women have bad luck with men. Some nice families have bad luck with neighbors. I bring all this up for my own selfish purposes, a behavior which I believe is favored by luck; my luck tells me that being pedantic and semi-evangelistic about the gospel of luck will bring more luck. Luck likes to witness attempts to manipulate it, but it doesn’t like to be bragged about. It’s finicky, but faithful if you can figure out its rhythms. Writing, saying, even thinking these exact same things I’m expressing here about luck might be bad luck for you. You just gotta know. Luck requires a faith in faith. I’m hoping for a lucky Week Two.
I had a very lucky Week One. My boys beat the champs in a game that ultimately hinged on 5-7 single-point-of-failure plays going exactly the way we needed. Good teams like the Lions create better chances of harnessing that luck, but you still need the luck to come through. So not only did the Lions keep it funky, but if you’ll recall, I also picked the Niners, Jags, Ravens and Browns. I don’t need to say more than that, other than 1) my Ravens and Jags predictions were almost eerily prescient, and 2) Joe Burrow tacitly concurred with my “the Bengals are so cool they’re dorky” diagnosis by getting himself a Fresh Start Haircut. As I said, luck doesn’t like to be bragged about, but I think it does enjoy a succinct, comprehensive acknowledgement. So thanks, luck. If it’s your pleasure, please stick around. We love having ya!
LIONS V. HAWKS NARRATIVE OF THE TAPE
Lions passing/Seahawks pass deef: Josh Reynolds had some mistakes for which he totally redeemed himself against the Chiefs. Always a heartwarming thing to see, and then an article came out this week about how he and Goff became especially close friends this offseason on an emotional plane ride. This team has brotherly camaraderie like that in a few different places. Sun God and Kalif have a strong bond over Kalif’s adoption of Amon-Ra’s remarkably diligent work ethic. These kinda things ultimately give the Lions a slight edge over a solid Seattle secondary with revenge-seeking former Lion Quandre Diggs and “sorry, we’re passing on ya”-fueled Devon Witherspoon. To note: Campbell specifically talked several times about getting Jah Gibbs more touches, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they favor him getting those touches in the flats on passes, saving the power running plays for Davey Montgomery. And speaking of running…
Lions running/Seahawks front seven: This is a strong edge for the Lions and like last week, the fulcrum on which the game will tilt. It’s positive that the Lions strength is a punishing and deceptively quick O-Line. Against Seattle’s 3-4 our big fellas should frequent the second level, hunting for blocks amid the LB corps — of which only Bobby Wagner is a real blue-chipper. We run well in several different ways.
Seahawk passing/Lions pass deef: the Seahawk offense is like the opposite of the Chief offense. Instead of a transcendent QB with questions at receiver, the Seahawks have terrific WRs and a “meeehhhh I don’t know” guy under center. Instead of using the threat of the pass to open up the run, the Seahawks look to run powerfully to then make the air game easier. The good news is the Lions have what can be used as a solution for both: terrific front seven play and a physical secondary. The Lions were ultimately able to get meaningful pressure on Mahomes, albeit they never truly got home, mostly due to his off-the-charts craftiness in the pocket. Geno-no-no is not Pat Mahomes. I’d say they’re due for multiple sacks this game. The Lions have a small edge here, but if they keep them Seattle in 3rd-and-longs, our pass rush and coverage will work in concert to severely limit Geno-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no. This is a Hall & Oates song “Gino (The Manager”) reference. Check it out, it’ll make you feel better about the Lions.
Seahawk running/Lions front seven: We could potentially be in for a test against the Seattle ground game. Carroll knows how to work RBs and he’s got two good ones. Their line is better built for run blocking and I think part of their gameplan will focus on long-sustained drives to limit our possession time. A lot comes down to our interior D-Line, and if Alim McNeill has the game I expect, Anzalone and the ‘backers will run free to the holes on runs. Give the Seahawks a small edge here, but with the caveat that if the Lions hold them to ~110 rush yards that will strongly contribute to a W.
Coach’s Coaching Coach-Chess: Our coaches made some terrific adjustments last week. That inspires great confidence going forward, but let’s not dismiss that Steve Spagnuolo had our number for the better part of the game and several of Andy Reid’s late-game decisions were almost daffy. We won the game, but the coaching match was won very late, and half by default. Carroll’s decision-making history isn’t without its blemishes, but I don’t see the Seahawks shooting themselves in the foot too much. The Lions will need a Campbell-style “TAKE EVERYTHING FROM THEM” attitude in all three phases. Glenn will need to be a bit more flexible, and dare I say ballsy when it comes to creative blitzes and D-Line moves against a scare-able Geno Smith. I’m feeling confident that Benny Johnson will call the right combo of power runs and crisp, sharp passing plays. Give the Leos a decent edge.
The Pick: in Week One, the Lions proved beyond doubt that we’re not bad. By beating Seattle as good-sized home favorites in front of a frothy crowd, we can prove that we’re reliably good. This is a game we should win and should reasonably expect to win. This game epitomizes the “take care of business” category cited by so many talking heads. If the Lions play confidently, they’ll be highly focused and ready to meet this moderate challenge; I expect them to figure out how to assert their will over the first 50 minutes, leaving the final ten for sharply executed mopping up. Gimme the Detroit Lions by 8 points.
WEEK TWO NOTABLES:
Packers (+2) @ Falcons — Unless there was some major injury news that I missed even after specifically searching for it, this line surprises me. The Packers appear to be pretty good and, critically in the early season with a new QB, have a very cohesive locker room. The Falcons are fine, but they’re not on the same level. Taking the Packers with some points seems good.
Niners (-7.5) @ Rams — With the Leos (for years now my friend Mike and I refer to them as “LEEEEEES” when they do something classically stupid; hopefully those days are mostly behind us) not having a Sunday game, Niners/Steelers was my preferred watch in early Week One. The Niners are so freaking good. There’s not one facet of the game where they don’t appear, at worst, exceedingly adequate. I know the Rams had a good W but the Niners laid a cross-country opening smackdown against a team they don’t hate. I think they hammer LA. Lay the touchie-point-five and gimme San Francisco.
Washington DC (+3.5) @ Broncos — I think Sean Payton is smart and Russ looked rejuvenated. That’s all I have for reasons here other than a disbelief that a prideful Payton would let his return start at 0-2. I don’t hold it against the Broncos for losing weirdly to Jimmy G and an underrated Raider team, especially when they committed several critical unforced errors that I think are Paytonably fixed. I think the Broncos hold serve at Mile High and win this by double digits.
Dolphins (-3) @ Patriots — This line also surprised me a bit. I think the Chargers are a solid team and the Dolphins moved the ball at will against them. The only way I think the Pats can win this game is if it’s another mudder courtesy of Mother Nature. I think these Dolphins have big chips on their shoulders and a rare Miami triumph in Foxboro to hush a deafening Massachusetts night crowd is a feather they really want in their cap. Their defense will look better because of who they’re playing, they’ll continue their offensive romp and Miami will cover comfortably.
Last week’s picks resulted in a respectable 5-0-0. And, last week being Week One, our grand total on the season is also 5-0-0. Hail to luck, may it bring us similar results this week if it is its will. Hope you all have a nice Oktoberfest weekend. Should be a doozy. Come back late Sunday or, latest, Monday morning for a running diary of our beloved Lions game against Seattle. Until then, Auf Wiedersehen!
